Sunday, 10 February 2008

Where Next

So a terrible weekend, and back to where I was at the start of the week, over £2600 down on the year.

There were always going to be periods like this and I am well prepared for it financially. However it's not a great position to be in, when you're trying to clear £2000 a month.

Hopefully, I will be able to do a lot more trading on my own account from now on which will help stem the flow when things are not going my way on the tipping lines. But my main concern at the moment is the performance of the services themselves, one in particular.

I'm not happy with Mark Holder. I paid £897 to join his service for 6 months, starting at the end of September. His first bet advised to me was a 10/1 winner on 29 September last year, not uncluded in this blog, which started on 1 October. Since then he has advised 51 horses, only two of which have won. In fairness, most of his selections are advised each way and fifteen of them have been placed - half of them at double figure prices.

However had I joined a day later, I would have had 2 winners in 4 1/2 months, and frankly that is not good enough. I know that there are no guarantees in this business, but the relentless optimism of his nightly updates and the half truths of the adverts are grating on me somewhat.

You will probably have gathered that I don't intend to re-subscribe, indeed as of now I won't be ringing for his tips. I've only lost £400 in addition to the initial subscription, but that's as far as I am prepared to go.

As for the other services, Henry Rix is quiet - no winners since Christmas, but has only played in 5 races since then. I am however well in front, even after accounting for the subscription and I know his strenghts are the flat and the big festival meetings, so I remain confident that he can do a job for me.

Isiris have been doing very well since I joined, although this is not their best time of year. I have subscribed to this service in the past and they certainly know what they are doing, expecting a very good year from them.

Steve Lewis Hamilton's strength is his all weather service, which has been firing in decent priced winners regularly, and has been holding down my losses in 2008 to manageable proportions. His private service is not producing spectacular results, neither is his lay service, but nor are they costing me much so I'm happy enough with how things are with Steve.

Mathematician Betting offer a very interesting service, with analysis of the days racing via e-mail each morning. Their headline account bets aren't producing much in the way of profits recently, but the content of the messages is very good most days and I haven't been making best use of it so far. That will change in the months ahead and I am happy to continue with them and looking forward to making some decent money on the back of their analysis.

Finally, my trial sub to Optimum Racing expired at the end of January. They were in fantastic form before Christmas but very poor since then. I am still in front with them but have yet to renew. Will give them a call this week I think and hope they can recapture their form.

Right, thats more than enough from me for today. Any comments would be very welcome.

7 comments:

Gags said...

Hi JP,

I've been subscribing to a couple of your tipsters over the last year or two and i can totally appreciate your frustrations with the performances of late. My subscription with MH is due for renewal in a couple of months and I am not sure whether I will be rejoining. As you have pointed out 1 winner from 51 selections is simply not good enough but my biggest gripe with himis that despite repeated claims to (1) have a greater number of bets (2) greatly reduce the average sp, there seems to be little evidence of either happening. All bets are ew and at prices which are too big to produce a decent strikerate and this can be seriously damaging for both the bank balance and your confidence in the service. On the positive side the months of Feb, March & April were by far the most successful last year and I am just hoping that history repeats itself!!! The other aspect I didnt like was after changing the staking plan in Sep last year he then adjusted his profit totals!!! all very well but this clearly wasn't the case for me and many others i suspect!
Anyway enough bleating from me, I am starting to think that the prospects of winning regularly following such services are slim and if you do succeed then the profits will be eaten up by subscriptions and phonecalls!!!
Keep up with the blog, I have been following it for agood few months now and all the best with you r future gambles!!
Gags

zappi said...

Greetings JP I enjoy reading your blog. I am a horseplayer (punter) from the united states and I have had similar runs of losing periods like you are in now.

One question if I may since you are losing about 2500 how much do you have in your betting bank? When the bank is getting low the losing becomes a problem in that your losses are breginning to effect your confidence in your ability to show profit.

My advice is to keep hitting it and a couple of good priced winners will get you into profit.

Good luck sincerely Zappi

Brian Coplin said...

It is always tough when renewal time comes around. Last year I had lots of services. I dropped Melchior and isis services as they lost me a fortune and I know that has continue throughout Janaury.

I also dropped personal info because for me it had lost me money. Yes, they have been in terrific form since I don't miss it too much. Especially the having to keep checking to see whether there are selections and then logging back at certain times.

I have stuck with Brimardon as the software is excellent and gives you plenty of ways to make money. The phone line is profitable too which is a bonus.

The other system I use this year is Private club and PremCode. This is 2 services one which has 50% strike ratio and the other is the original main line bet collection. Both are great because of the sms selections and email for quick accounting purposes.

Then off course there are my owns systems which are always good becuase your in complete control. :)

martin said...

I haven't been reading much mate but from what i have you are pretty good at trading. I say get rid of the tipsters. I know your not going to (!) but i used to follow tipsters including SLh and am so glad I gave them all the heave ho. I am doing far better on my own than I ever did with any of them and I'm reponsible for my own destiny. If i loose a grand on any given day I know it will be of my own doing and not because of somebody in an ivory tower somewhere. you also get more creative and innovative ...

JP said...

Thanks very much for your comments everyone. Much appreciated, and good to know there's a few of you out there reading this.

Gags, can't argue with anything you've writtten. You seem as frustrated as I am with the situation.

When I set out on this project, I knew it wouldn't be winners all the way, indeed the losing days would far outweight the winning ones. That's fine. But as far as MH is concerned, I just don't see any future for me with what he is doing at the moment. To be fair, the loss from him is not massive, but there doesn't seem to be any sign that he might turn things round. A strike rate of less than 10% is no good to me.




Zappi, very good to hear from you. In terms of my bank, the loss is easily sustainable. I originally set aside a £6000 bank, used this level to set the staking levels of the bets as much as anything else, and I've got plenty more reserves to put in should I need to. Had a very good run up to Christmas, and look forward to a similar one before much longer. Hope you keep reading and best of luck to you.




Brian, Yours is one of the blogs I read as often as I can and will continue to do so in its new home. Always good to see how well you're doing.

Mark Holder aside, I'm happy enough with the way things are going. There were plenty of other tipsters I looked at. Will look again after Cheltenham when all the renewals come around. To be honest, I've got too many on the go just now but I wanted to try as many as I could and see who I found to be the best. But whichever ones you go with, there's nothing better than making money from your own efforts and will be trying hard to do that as well.



Martin, thanks very much for your comments. Much appreciated. Well I've given one up !!! I will keep everything on here under review constantly, be it tipsters or any of my own selections or trades. Results like last weekend are hard to swallow at times, losing £1000 in days on the back of someone elses say so...tough, very tough.

I've had some very good days trading in the short time I've been doing this, and as soon as time allows I will get plenty of sessions in again. Wish you all the best.


Thanks all
JP

Brian Coplin said...

Good see you having an objective view on things. Tipping Information services are not everybody's cup of tea and do require a unique type of discpline for sure. Thanks for the kinds comments. Any chance you could update the link to my blog as thanks to lastminutelving.com closing soon I had to move to http://betstobefair.co.uk

JP said...

Hi Brian,

Only way you can be really. Ride the up and downs and hopefully come out on the right side. Updated the link to your blog at the new place. Have a good day.

JP