Friday, 22 August 2008

Black Friday

Friday 22 August


Miserable day today with just one each way place return from 12 bets.

Tipping Legends put up 6 horses, but nothing to come on any of them - yet again two more horses backed each way finished 4th - Damien 18/1, and Saxford 16/1, the others today were Dandy Man (e/w), Trenchtown win, Ajaan (e/w) and Margie's Man (e/w).

KB decided to swing Isiris into action today with 4 bets in the hope of turning the month round. Didn't really happen and another £475 was dropped, with Jobe finished third having been advised each way, the only bet I collected all day.

Mathematician had two bets with a win bet on Jollyhockeysticks, second, and an each way double on Marine Boy and Delegator coming unstuck in the first leg.


Loss on day £1475



Seems as good a day as any to bemoan some bad luck, but these each way bets which are missing the frame by one place are really bugging me at the moment. Just had a quick look, since the beginning of June this has happened no less than 29 times !! No idea whether this is within the realms of what would normally happen but it certainly doesn't feel like it. Just something I have to put up with. In the long run I guess these things even themselves out, at least I'm getting a run for my money.

1 comment:

Graeme Dand said...

Hi JP,
I was directed to your blog by Graeme Dand from the Experiment – and I must say, it’s a fascinating read…
I don’t bet at the levels you do and I never bet EW, but I can completely relate to what you are saying about the bad luck with runners finishing fourth…
A couple of years ago, the same thing happened to me with winners. Time and time again, my horse was getting pipped on line; just failing to get up or falling at the last. Whilst in theory you can stand back, shrug your shoulders and think it will even itself out in the long run: in reality, I think it’s quite easy to become a little bitter and disillusioned. However, acknowledging that this is just likely to make things worse (!), I took action…
I now put a low IR lay (around even money) on every horse that I back. This means that I win if the horse wins – or if it gets very close to winning. Obviously, the downside is that I now only win half as much as I used to on my winners – but I feel that the smoothing of the luck curve more than compensates for that…
Obviously, as your issue is with EW, you would need to lay in the place market. And I would guess that evens wouldn’t be the point at which to play ! But I’m sure you get my point and could adjust the amount and the odds you ask for, as appropriate…
Finally, in case you are interested, I am hosting Graeme’s blog this week in his absence – so if you fancy popping by and saying ‘hello’ it would be nice to hear form you…
Andrew.