Saturday, 27 September 2008

Still Sitting Out - Expensive Week !!!

Saturday 27 September

Just three days of the month left, and still not had a bet in September. Going to keep things that way and resume when I get back from Paris in a couple of weeks.

Sitting out this week has certainly proved to be expensive, with very good profits shown by Tipping Legends, Isiris and SLH. Even the much maligned (by me) Blue Sky have been firing in the winners in September.

However, I needed time to reflect and relax, and I missed plenty of losers in the 3 weeks I was away so I have no regrets.

I'm feeling pretty high on life at the moment, certainly I'm in a place where I haven't been for a long time and I'm very much looking forward to getting this blog up and running again, as well as a few other personal things so it's all good from where I'm looking :-D

Looking back, I've now been doing this for exactly 12 months now - showing a good profit even after deducting the cost of the subs and extra phone calls, mobile bills etc.

Going forward, I am going to revise the staking plan when I start up again in 10 days or so.

I will be following the bets as they are given by the services, but I will be reducing the value of the points by half form what they are now. I will use the other half to back the selections win only and trade them on Betfair - the aim to get risk free bets on them, and trade out for a guaranteed profit in running, or beforehand, wherever possible.

The reason for this is an attempt to reduce the variance from day to day, while maintaining good profits when the tips are doing well.

Also, the amount I have in my betting bank has been reduced, as I've been on a bit of a spending spree - as well as reducing my working hours (bright lad me !!!).

The money I've won on here in the last year or so was always intended to pay for the good, fun things in life - I bet purely to win money now, and that aim has been achieved in the last year despite many ups and downs.

Anyway, pretty much spent the profits in the last couple of weeks - had a fantastic holiday in Kenya/Tanzania, will be blowing another load of cash in Paris next week. I'm also looking at a new car and bike and I'm getting my eyes lasered - so all the money I've won in the last year will have gone along with much more, and so I need to start again.

I now work 20 hours per week, and have no other work commitments for the next few months apart from the odd day. The salary from my job covers my mortgage and all the other household bills, and I have the option to increase my hours if I want to (or need to).

So any extra money I need will have to be come from my betting account, therefore I need to reduce the variance so I can take money out of my account whenever I need it. I've got a sub to pay to Tipping Legends when my current period expires at the end of November and I'm also looking at rowing in with Graeme Dand "The Form Analyst" as I think his output is terrific, even if the results in September haven't been so good. But apart from that, I won't need to pay any more subs until next May.

The bank I have available is £10,000 and all the points values will be set in accordance with that.

Looking back at the last year, when I started with a notional bank of £6,000 I've been fortunate that I've never really come under any pressure money wise, despite the occasional very bad run (for example between 25 April and 9 May I lost £6,158 !!!). Straight away I went on a great run and I've never actually been behind at all in the last year.

I still have decent reserves if I need them, but assuming a similar run of results then I should be fine.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the rest of the weekend.

Monday, 22 September 2008

Picking Up The Threads

Monday 22 September

Well I'm back in the real world now, after spending a mind blowing couple of weeks in Kenya / Tanzania.

Just about the most memorable holiday I've ever had for many reasons, and the come down since I got back home has been quite something.

Haven't had a bet yet since I got back, been busy catching up with friends and doing other things.

Really struggling with motivation to start all this again - managed to clear my head of some crap which has been troubling me for a while now, and I feel energised and positive to make one or two changes in my life. The lack of contact with the "normal" world for a couple of weeks has worked wonders for me.

In terms of this particular project, it doesn't look like I've missed a great deal in terms of profitability during the last three weeks.

Tipping Legends have been having a lean time of it so far in September, although a couple of double figure price winners in the last couple of days have helped things along a fair bit. Poor day on Monday though.

Isiris reported a loss of 20 points last week when I rang the weekly review on Sunday, indeed they are now some 70-80 points off the high point of the year back in March / April time.

Mathematician advised a couple of decent priced winners while I was away, and showed a good profit. SLH gave out a winner yesterday at 5/1 - which was his first bet of the week apparently, and I've no idea what Optimum have been up to.

First day back at work today, which was pretty underwhelming to be honest - although it wasn't too bad once I got back into it - still only got 10 days to go before my next break (the Arc weekend in Paris !!!).

Haven't had a bet all this month so far, and haven't missed it one little bit if I'm honest. Think I may even take a few more days out to work out the best way of taking this blog forward. The ups and downs of what I've been doing for the last year are pretty wearing at times - wins and losses of £1000 a day have become pretty common, especially in recent months and I'm once again at the stage of considering the staking plan, whether I trade the selections back, whether I back win only etc etc.

It's all up in the air at present, don't know the answer - time for a think.

Monday, 1 September 2008

Still Here

Apologies for the lack of updates, but I'm about to go away for 2 1/2 weeks so I've got a lot of work to get through, as well as various other things to sort before I leave.

Given enough time, I will update the blog on Wednesday morning before I go. Not sure exactly where the profit and loss has got to as I haven't had time to update my spreadsheets either. There has been one great day (last Friday), followed immediately by a very bad day on Saturday. But I think I've probably improved things by maybe £200-£300.

Have drawn stumps now until I get back, no time to make any calls today or tomorrow as I will be far too busy so no betting for nearly three weeks (wow !!).

Couple of other points, an apology to Andrew who was sitting in on Graeme Dand's Experiment blog last week - he left a comment here which I never got round to replying to.

Also, sorry to see Leon has called it a day as far as his blog is concerned. He started last October pretty much around the same time I did, and I've followed his progress with great interest. He's done very well for himself and I'm sure he will continue to do so.

That is it for now - all being well there will be an update on Wednesday morning, otherwise I'll be back on Saturday 20 September.