Saturday, 27 September 2008

Still Sitting Out - Expensive Week !!!

Saturday 27 September

Just three days of the month left, and still not had a bet in September. Going to keep things that way and resume when I get back from Paris in a couple of weeks.

Sitting out this week has certainly proved to be expensive, with very good profits shown by Tipping Legends, Isiris and SLH. Even the much maligned (by me) Blue Sky have been firing in the winners in September.

However, I needed time to reflect and relax, and I missed plenty of losers in the 3 weeks I was away so I have no regrets.

I'm feeling pretty high on life at the moment, certainly I'm in a place where I haven't been for a long time and I'm very much looking forward to getting this blog up and running again, as well as a few other personal things so it's all good from where I'm looking :-D

Looking back, I've now been doing this for exactly 12 months now - showing a good profit even after deducting the cost of the subs and extra phone calls, mobile bills etc.

Going forward, I am going to revise the staking plan when I start up again in 10 days or so.

I will be following the bets as they are given by the services, but I will be reducing the value of the points by half form what they are now. I will use the other half to back the selections win only and trade them on Betfair - the aim to get risk free bets on them, and trade out for a guaranteed profit in running, or beforehand, wherever possible.

The reason for this is an attempt to reduce the variance from day to day, while maintaining good profits when the tips are doing well.

Also, the amount I have in my betting bank has been reduced, as I've been on a bit of a spending spree - as well as reducing my working hours (bright lad me !!!).

The money I've won on here in the last year or so was always intended to pay for the good, fun things in life - I bet purely to win money now, and that aim has been achieved in the last year despite many ups and downs.

Anyway, pretty much spent the profits in the last couple of weeks - had a fantastic holiday in Kenya/Tanzania, will be blowing another load of cash in Paris next week. I'm also looking at a new car and bike and I'm getting my eyes lasered - so all the money I've won in the last year will have gone along with much more, and so I need to start again.

I now work 20 hours per week, and have no other work commitments for the next few months apart from the odd day. The salary from my job covers my mortgage and all the other household bills, and I have the option to increase my hours if I want to (or need to).

So any extra money I need will have to be come from my betting account, therefore I need to reduce the variance so I can take money out of my account whenever I need it. I've got a sub to pay to Tipping Legends when my current period expires at the end of November and I'm also looking at rowing in with Graeme Dand "The Form Analyst" as I think his output is terrific, even if the results in September haven't been so good. But apart from that, I won't need to pay any more subs until next May.

The bank I have available is £10,000 and all the points values will be set in accordance with that.

Looking back at the last year, when I started with a notional bank of £6,000 I've been fortunate that I've never really come under any pressure money wise, despite the occasional very bad run (for example between 25 April and 9 May I lost £6,158 !!!). Straight away I went on a great run and I've never actually been behind at all in the last year.

I still have decent reserves if I need them, but assuming a similar run of results then I should be fine.

Thanks for reading and enjoy the rest of the weekend.


Graeme Dand said...

Hi JP.

Thanks for the comment mate. I've posted my results on the blog tonight for the past month and they don't look great.

However, I think I have been victimised a little on the blog as some people expected me to make 100 points standing on my head this month. It hasn't happened and everyone seems to have lost the plot a bit.

Before today, I was 13 points down to suggested stakes and odds and now that's down to 5 points down after today.

I've no experience of other tipsters but having my worst month of the year and losing 5 points isn't the end of the world in my opinion.

Some disagree and think it's a disaster but I suppose they are all entitled to their own view.

As I've said before on the blog, I'd be happy to have 10 guys next month who believe in what I'm trying to do rather than 20 people who want 100 points a month from me.

If you have any questions about next month, drop me an email. If you want to sign up, let me know and we can agree to start your subscription when you start back punting again for the discounted price.

I think trading IR may help you smooth your P&L. I tipped a 65 shot (33/1) this month that finished 5th and traded at 4 for a massive sum IR and everyone moaned because it lost ffs. I managed to lay at 6 for a nice profit and it's this sort of thing that people need to understand about trading IR and how powerful it can be if used correctly. I know you do!

Cheers for your support.


Man of Mystery said...

Hi JP, just a short note to let you know I'm back with WUBT Betting Exchange Radio at a new home after the demise of my old blog hosted at LastMinuteLiving.

My new home is and I'd appreciate a link. You already have one there.

The blog will feature the occasional radio show with bloggers like yourself and betting software developers along with my daily betting results. And betting software reviews too.

If you feel like being a guest sometime please let me know and we'll sort it out.

I trust you're well and great to see you in the blogosphere still!

Talkbet said...

Have you stopped ? :o)