Thursday, 1 January 2009

A Day of Reckoning

Time to look at how everything adds up for the last year or so in terms of profits, subscriptions, missed opportunities, fuck ups etc.


I started this blog on 1 October 2007, although I started following the advices of my initial tipsters a few days before this.

My original subscriptions were as follows:-


Isiris £1695 (23/09/07) until 31/12/2008
Mark Holder £897 (24/09/07) for 6 months
Henry Rix £999 (23/09/07) for 6 months
Steve Lewis Hamilton £725 (24/09/07) until 01/05/08
Mathematician £49.99 per month (so 3 months - £150)
Optimum Racing £197 (3 month trial to 31/01/08)
Paul Jones NH / Cheltenham ante-post service £195 (this is the 08/09 price, can't find a record of what I paid last year but it was roughly the same I think.

Total paid £4,858

Between 23/09/07 and 31/12/2007 I made a profit of £5,271. Effectively paying for the subs to that point.

My experiences with the services are all detailed throughout the blog, but due to disappointing results I dispensed with the services of Mark Holder and Henry Rix after the initial six months.

Was looking for other services to increase my portfolio and so boost the profits. Received an invitation to join Blue Sky Racing for an initial six month subscription, but if you read the blog back this was an unmitigated disaster for me and I gave up once the losses reached over £3,000.

Made a much better decision to join the Tipping Legends horses and golf services and have made excellent profits following their advice since the summer.

Finally, the last service I got involved with was The Form Analyst, Graeme Dand. This is a brand new service and I'm sure Graeme won't mind me saying it's very much a work in progress. However, in the short time I've been with him it's clear that Graeme is indeed a great form student, and he will produce great returns for his subscribers.



Subs paid 2008

Blue Sky Racing £500 (25/04/08) for 6 months
Tipping Legends £555 01/06/08 for 6 months
Tipping Legends £1275 - year to 30/11/09
Mathematician £49.99 per month (£600 for year)
Steve Lewis Hamilton £1,100 - year to 01/05/09
Graeme Dand £95 for 3 months to 15/01/09
Optimum Racing £1,197 - year to 30/06/09
Paul Jones Cheltenham Service £ 195

Total subs paid in 2008 £5,517.



In summary then, since September 2007 I've made a profit of £27,021 and paid subscriptions of £10,375 !! This gives a net profit of £16,646. In addition there are the extra costs of making the phone calls - say £40/month so another £500 or so to come off there.

Obviously I've spent a huge amount on subscriptions, partly due to trying to find the best services for me and I'm now very happy with the ones I have now.

If I could have anticipated the results I wouldn't have joined Mark Holder, Henry Rix or Blue Sky Racing. I would have saved £2,396 in subs and £3,302 in losses (ie these three cost me £5,698 !!!). However that's all academic and those are the results.

Also, I did miss out on extra profits by missing winners through various circumstances - but all my own fault. Two consecutive Mondays in November stick out - missed 4 winners while I was in hospital getting checked out after my motorbike crash, and then the following week I totally forgot to ring SLH's line and missed out on a 16/1 double - over £2000 went begging on those two days alone.

Another thing which has held me back I think has been buggering around with the staking plan. Obviously all the services use different levels of points or units, and recommended betting banks and it was causing me problems trying to amalgamate them all into a plan which worked. Finally worked a plan out in November which seems to sit very well with how I want to play the game, in terms of staking and betting style - each way betting has largely been binned except for advised each way doubles and the golf bets.

Isiris has now closed down, it may re-open from March 1st and KB will write to us in February to confirm whether he is coming back or not. If he does, then I will re-subscribe.

Overall then, I think a very satisfactory year in 2008. Made some bad decisions and some stupid mistakes, but given the services continue to provide similar results in 2009 then things are looking very good indeed.


Subs I need to pay in 2009 will be around £5,000 if Isiris don't come back, I guess another £1500 if they do. Most of my subs are paid well into the New Year, and I may time my renewals so they all end on 31 December if I can ...doesn't really matter but if I do go down that route, then I will spend less than forecast.

Target for 2009 then from the tipsters - a profit of £30,000 before accounting for subs so I would like to clear £25,000 this year. It's a tall order but I think the last few months have shown what is possible, and I'm confident that I can achieve it.

Would like to make additional profits from sports betting, price trading and poker. Not got anything in mind in terms of a target as yet, just keep disciplined and work hard at it and see how it goes.

Think I've covered everything there, but if you have any comments or questions then ask away.

9 comments:

JB said...

Hello JP.
If your thinking of getting involved with the trading side using Bet Angel and the like, check out these guys blogs.
http://mbakersportstrader.blogspot.com/

http://adamheathcote.blogspot.com/2009/01/messy-start.html

Blue Skys horses still continue to be excellent for trading purposes(actual pure betting progress is prooving to be bit of a struggle) as can bet pretty assured odds will crash soon as released.
One today springs to mind, Steptoe £1000 trading stake @4.33 and then exist out at Betfair @3.15. Guranteed return £325 win or lose.

JB said...

Another recent Bluesky mover.
Princess Flame backed @21, layed off @12.5

MARK BELLEW said...

Hi John,

Well done for your efforts and profit.

I have my own style of betting and just use my own form reading, hubches and facies so my costs are £1.60 for a Racing Post each day.

My style of betting as you know is two be waiting for the markets to open and check every single betting forms prices as they open up and scan for prices i think are to high and theb fibnd a match with the same firm and do £20 doubles usually with a football selection to make it a tbl or on wed thu fri sat a golf two ball bet so when i get a winner it usually returns always £1000-£3000 on average.

I have stuck to this style and had some great trbs up especially during the summer where in one month i got 6 up netting me £10,000. I have also been done this last month 3 time by a short head cuaght on the line job for £2,700/£2300/£1900......so theres a fine line between success and failure as you know only to well.

Anyway i also got a few golf match betting accas up combined with horses netting me over £5000 twive this year. All in all the last 3 months i have hit the cross bar so many times it is just unbelievable. On the other hand i have not been betting as many bets during winter but still have not doen as well as up until September where i was over £25,000 up approx. I think hinestly i am about a definite £20,000 up which i am happy with as i have enjoyed pitting my wits and nunches on price scalping into play with success.

I am thinking of doing exactly the same this year but when i get a value price which is way out iam going to up the stake slightly by 33% for higher returns when i do click to aim for a nice £30,000 clear profit, altho in this game you never know on some bets you can win that in one bet on some of the special accas we do, so heres hoping matey for 2009 we kick the credit crunch into oblivion and rack up those nice price win on the bit winners.

Happy new year and all the best luck for 2009 JP.

Mark

Alex said...

Hi JP

I have followed your blog throughout the year and have followed closely your tipsters, one question regarding these. I have been offered Henry Rix racing for 3 months for £199 after a one month trial when i got 3 winners at 4/1 3/1 and 12/1, returned a nice profit for the month. In your experience would you recommend Rix at this price?

JP said...

JB,

Thanks for your comments. Will have a look at the trading blogs you mention.

Have dabbled in the past with mixed results, and will form part of my strategy for 2009.

As far as trading Blue Sky selections is concerned, well it's not what you pay £2000 a year for is it ? Fair enough the opportunity is there to guarantee some risk free bets, but the selections have to stand on their own merits.

I see from their website that they have turned things round somewhat since the summer, however a 12 point profit in 6 months is hardly the stuff of dreams - and that's at the best prices which I know from experience are difficult to achieve.

However, trading the selections of the services is something I will be looking to do this year, alongside the staking plan. Many of the selections do shorten in price after they've been given out and if I can generate risk free bets, or guaranteed in-running profits then that is what I should be looking to do.


Hi Mark, Been a while so it's good to hear from you. Sounds like you had a great year last year, and I'm sure 2009 will be even better for you. Looking to make loads from betting / trading / pokering this year - looking for financial independence really. Think the part time job is fairly secure but you never know, wouldn't be the end of the world if it went but would like a few thousand more in the bank before then !! Very best wishes for the new year mate and stay in touch - how about doing your own blog ?!!


Alex,

Good to hear from you. I had a 6 month sub with Henry Rix until the middle of March 2008. Things started very well, first bet he gave was a 14/1 winner, quickly followed by two or three more winners at decent prices in the next few weeks. Was very happy. Then from Christmas to the end of Cheltenham he advised 27 losers on the trot, 26 of which were unplaced !! At which point my sub was due and I bailed out.

To be honest, if you can get 3 months for £199 then it's might be worth a go as thats a big discount on the normal price of £695 and you might land on some winners.

Looking at his website he lists 23 winners in his latest results. I know for a fact that Oldjoesaid and Twice Over were his first two winners of 2008 (both in April), and so the list will be all the winners he advised last year, so just be aware of that.

All the best
JP

Wil said...

Hi JP,

I've been keeping an eye on this blog and your progress since I first saw it back in August. Its a good read, especially this review. Its good to see how other 'portfolio investors/gamblers' are getting on.

I had a similar run of things this year and am with some of the same tipsters, TL's, Maths, and was with SLH for 3 months, but was around break even when my subs was up and wasn't keen on the phone calls as he was my only telephone tipster so I didnt resubscribe. Just had a look at his website, 90 points profit for the NH campaign so far!!! Gutted personally, but good for you and his other followers.

I also had a similar nightmarish November as far as missing bets goes... December wasn't much better, but its a New Year and a fresh start, so its a time for looking forward not back.

Having said that, regarding your bike accident, I take it you've recovered OK? Did the bike make it? What kind of bike is/was it? Me and my gf are bikers too, well she is still on her L plates but her Suzuki RV125 at least looks like a proper bike, well it did until she took a slide on the ice a couple weeks back, still runs ok though. I think I'll be keeping the Dukey M600 in the garage til April.

Anyhoo, you have probably come across it by now, but if you haven't, then the Secret Betting Club is worth checking out, right up your street as far as following tipsters goes, and has a good forum of like minded souls to share experiences with. Its a link from one of the members there that I found your blog.

All the best for 2009.

JP said...

Hi Wil,

Thanks for posting.

Unlucky with SLH, he's been very good so far this season and you've missed out on a lot. He's back from his annual break today though obviously there's nothing from him until the weather picks up. Don't tend to notice the call costs to be honest, couple of my others are telephone only. Gives the tips out straight away, and I don't usually listen on if he has no bet on the day.

Regarding the bike, it wasn't mine !! I was due to take my test the day after my accident so was using the instructors bike. Was going ok until a wall got in my way !! Last time I saw it, it had a buckled front wheel and was on it's way to the bike shop - dropped me off at the hospital on the way.

Will be looking to get back into it once the weather warms up a bit, get it passed and then get my own.

Member of the Secret Betting Club already. Don't post, or haven't yet, on their forum but it's an interesting read.

Best of luck for the New Year and keep reading.

All the best
JP

Wil said...

Good bit of luck the bike not being yours, get the falls out the way while you are still learning, hopefully you have already. I've taken a couple of spills, its all part and parcel of riding bikes I guess. The bike test is pretty hardcore, but now they've changed it all so I have no idea what it involves now, and I only took mine just over a year ago.

Anyhoo, back on topic and I have to say very well done on your £15k+ profit for your first year and a bit. Good going and it looks like you're going from strength to strength so your £25k profit for 2009 seems like it will be well within your reach. Most businesses fail within their first year and the same is probably true for people trying to make money from tipsters, and it sounds like you've been through the ringer at times over the last year, so maybe its all plain sailing from here.

All the best

Will

JP said...

Hi again mate,

Aye, getting used to the ups and downs now. Had some pretty tough days along the way, but it doesn't worry me now. More annoying are the self-inflicted losses, or missed profits - they do gnaw away at me and I'll be working hard to minimise them this year.

As far as the bikes go, if that's the worst I ever do then I'll take that. Had I been riding longer then I could have got out of it, just panicked and lost control and not enough experience to know what to do. Live and learn though, be ready next time :-)

All the best
JP