Sunday, 1 February 2009

Narrow Margins and a bit of tweaking !!

Well January is over now and the final analysis shows a profit of £4,976 - a truly amazing total considering how the month started.


Been doing some reviews of my staking plan with the help of a pricing analyst friend of mine (!) and will be making one or two changes. It's still a work in progress, but the immediate change is that from now on I will be backing all Tipping Legends horses to level stakes (£100 win). Analysis has shown that this is the most profitable strategy - and it's also what JC recommends which is fair enough. More to follow on this in the days ahead.

Aware I've been chopping and changing ever since I started, but using proper analysis will ensure I get this right and maximise my returns.



On to Sunday,


Sunday 1 February


A perfect illustration today of the narrow margin between success and failure.

SLH went for another each way double with Divers and Tullamore Dew - the win part of the bet going down in the first leg, with Divers finishing second (traded at 1.25 in running, and not helped by hitting the second last), miles clear of the third horse. Tullamore Dew then went on win, and left me to reflect on another close call.

Listening to Steve's review tonight, he explained why he didn't stake the bet the same as yesterday - where he gave the two win singles as well as the each way double. He felt the make up of the races was different to yesterday, there were several chances in Divers' race, although the place looked good, and similarly he expected the favourite to win in Tullamore Dew's race and so the value was in the place double. In hindsight he might have done things differently, but was happy with the bet beforehand and he can do no more than that.

The second near miss was Along The Nile who failed by just half a length to beat European Dream. Came from a fair way back to challenge on the run in (traded at 1.11 in running) but couldn't quite get to the winner.

Finally got on the right end of a tight one with Mr Rooney who prevailed by a nose from Whozart. Thought it had held on when I watched it live, but not so sure when I saw the freeze frame on ATR. As is usual ATR decided to take a break before the result was announced and it was some relief that I saw on teletext that Mr Rooney had just held on.

Some plenty of excitement but a profit of just £43 on the horses which is wiped out after booking the golf losses for this week.

Backed Rory McIlroy in the golf last week, one week early as he won the Dubai Desert Classic today. Second week running as Pat Perez did the same in the Bob Hope last week the week after he was tipped !!!

Looking forward, not expecting too much turf action this week as widespread snow is forecast - Lingfield tomorrow has already gone, they're inspecting at Southwell where they've got snow and there's also an inspection at Wolves on the all weather with snow expected.



Bets Advised


The Form Analyst

Noble Prince 1pt win @ 5/1 - LOST (SP 4/1)
Circus of Dreams 1pt e/w @ 4/1 - 4TH (SP 7/2)
Mr Rooney 1pt win @ 8/1 - WON (SP 8/1)


SLH

Divers (5/2), Tullamore Drew (6/1) - 1pt e/w double - 2ND (SP 15/8) / WON (SP 9/2)


Tipping Legends

Along The Nile 0.5 pts e/w @ 9/1 - 2ND (SP 8/1)
Critical Stage 1pt win @ 9/2 - LOST (SP 5/1)
Mistress To No One 2pts win @ 9/2 - LOST (SP 7/2)
Gripit N Tipit 0.5 pts e/w @ 20/1 - 4TH (SP 14/1)


Tipping Legends (Golf)

Sergio Garcia - 2pts win @ 10/1 - TIED 11TH
Steven Ames - 1pt e/w @ 45/1 - MISSED CUT
John Merrick - 0.5 pts e/w @ 125/1 (sporting), 100/1 gen - IN PLAY (NOTHING TO COME)



Bets Placed

Noble Prince £80 win @ 5/1.................(80)
Circus Of Dreams £100 win @ 4/1...........(100)
Mr Rooney £70 win @ 8/1....................560
Divers / Tullamore Drew £50 e/w dbl.........63
Along The Nile £100 win @ 8/1.............(100)
Critical Stage £100 win @ 9/2.............(100)
Mistress To No One £100 win @ 9/2.........(100)
Gripit N Tipit £40 win @ 25/1..............(40)
Gripit N Tipit £60 win @ 20/1..............(60)
Sergio Garcia £100 win @ 10/1.............(100)
Steven Ames £50 e/w @ 45/1................(100)
John Merrick £25 e/w @ 100/1...............(50)

Loss on day £207

1 comment:

MARK BELLEW said...

You hit it on the head wheb you stated there is a fine line betweeen success and failure.....the amount of times a caught on the line has done me for thousands or a bogey at the last hole.

I suppose thats gambling, altho with the amount of snow here in London area there is no chance of anything muvh going ahead this next three days.

I cannot remeber this much snow in London in yearsand years.

Anyway a few dats to regroup for the next attack so to speak will do no harm eh !

Luck as always
M.