Well a few thoughts on the last week, will be a few more during the week as they come to me but I'll start here.
First things first I won't be changing my staking plan - I've analysed the results from the services over the last year or so, and this is the most profitable plan - by some distance. At the moment it is not working, but it will.
I don't think that because it didn't work over a 4 day period there is something inherently wrong with it.
However, I think it is important to review the events of the last week - and the same would have been true had I won as much as I had hoped.
Had three comments yesterday regarding my somewhat tongue in cheek comment that the answer was to have more bets.
Well, in a way that would be an answer. As I've said I'm not going to deviate from the long term plan, so I cannot, say, back £50 on a 25/1 winner at Cheltenham, where if it was on any other day of the year I would be having £100 on it.
So, what to do instead.
Trading the horses has been suggested. Now I keep coming back to this, and this is an absolute necessity.
The majority of horses I back trade shorter pre-race, and so what I need to be doing is backing them on Betfair, and then laying them back at a shorter price for a risk free bet. It won't work everytime, but it will enough times to prove highly profitable over the long term, and of course there will be many occasions where I can lay in running to guarantee a profit.
Been talking about this for long enough, and I need to start doing this from now on. It won't be as easy to manage my positions when I am at work, but I don't work full time and so need to do as much as I can - starting this week !!
Another thing I could do would be to follow the staking plans as advised by the services alongside my own plan. I wouldn't do it to full value stakes of course. While I have a healthy betting bank, there's only so much exposure I want at any given time.
It's something to consider though - especially at the bigger meetings, or with the "clever" each-way bets. Although, as I have said previously I don't find it easy to get these bets on.
However with the enhanced place terms available at the festival and other concessions the bookmakers were offering mean I shouldn't just be backing "blind" as I was doing last week. I was so busy getting bets on there seemed to be very little time for doing anything else. I can't use that as an excuse though, I need to be a bit smarter next time.
Tipping Legends had a great festival for their clients, finding 8 winners on the week - however, I made buttons from their festival bets, and lost money on the week following their selections.
Maths had two account bets, highlighting five horses and yielding a 20 point profit to advised stakes - I lost £500. Two places at 25/1 get me nothing unfortunately.
An unsatisfactory result, I'm sure you will agree.
As it was Cheltenham, I had additional bets which are not part of my usual portfolio.
Paul Jones' ante-post service performed with great credit once again this year. 30 bets, produced four winners at 14/1, 14/1 adv (got 12/1), 12/1 adv (got 10/1), and 10/1, as well as places at 33/1 (only the brilliance of Tony McCoy prevented this from being a winner), 6/1, 14/1, and 5/1. Also the place bet on Roll Along without the big 3 at 33/1 was successful but I was unable to get the bet on at the price. In all a profit of £1559 over 4 days was excellent.
Also I made additional bets based on Paul Jones' overnight e-mail service and Mathematician's additional thoughts on the Cheltenham races in his daily e-mails. As well I also had a few bets based on SLH's thoughts on the Cheltenham card - although not on day one when he liked Forpaddydeplaster !! I did this last year with a good deal of success, but this wasn't replicated this year.
The Paul Jones overnight trends e-mails are not tips as such, but suggestions based on where the likely winners are from a trends perspective. Paul, as I'm sure most of you know, writes the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide. For the first time this year, I didn't buy the book, and so relied on the e-mails to make the final selections.
The e-mails pinpointed 9 winners and 17 placed horses, from 3-4 horses shortlisted for each race, as I mentioned during the week I staked £100 on the first named ie "strongest" horse and £50 on the remainder. Had I level staked £50 on each selection, I would have been £562 better off.
Getting down to a manageable shortlist is a fine art, but will mention this one in passing. For the Freddie Williams Plate, Paul mentioned the good record of Venetia Williams - she ran two in the race - Something Wells and Ping Pong Sivola. Unfortunately for me Something Wells didn't make it to the final shortlist, which was a pity as he won at 33/1 just beating his stablemate who did make the list - fine margins and all that.
Maths e-mails gave 5 winners and 4 places including winners at 16/1 and 12/1.
I think dutching all these additional selections may well be the way to go in future. I will do some analysis over the next week or so, before I come to any final conclusions.
Plenty to think about, always learning in this game. I will get there in the end.