Sunday, 15 March 2009

Cheltenham Thoughts

Well a few thoughts on the last week, will be a few more during the week as they come to me but I'll start here.

First things first I won't be changing my staking plan - I've analysed the results from the services over the last year or so, and this is the most profitable plan - by some distance. At the moment it is not working, but it will.

I don't think that because it didn't work over a 4 day period there is something inherently wrong with it.

However, I think it is important to review the events of the last week - and the same would have been true had I won as much as I had hoped.

Had three comments yesterday regarding my somewhat tongue in cheek comment that the answer was to have more bets.

Well, in a way that would be an answer. As I've said I'm not going to deviate from the long term plan, so I cannot, say, back £50 on a 25/1 winner at Cheltenham, where if it was on any other day of the year I would be having £100 on it.

So, what to do instead.

Trading the horses has been suggested. Now I keep coming back to this, and this is an absolute necessity.

The majority of horses I back trade shorter pre-race, and so what I need to be doing is backing them on Betfair, and then laying them back at a shorter price for a risk free bet. It won't work everytime, but it will enough times to prove highly profitable over the long term, and of course there will be many occasions where I can lay in running to guarantee a profit.

Been talking about this for long enough, and I need to start doing this from now on. It won't be as easy to manage my positions when I am at work, but I don't work full time and so need to do as much as I can - starting this week !!

Another thing I could do would be to follow the staking plans as advised by the services alongside my own plan. I wouldn't do it to full value stakes of course. While I have a healthy betting bank, there's only so much exposure I want at any given time.

It's something to consider though - especially at the bigger meetings, or with the "clever" each-way bets. Although, as I have said previously I don't find it easy to get these bets on.

However with the enhanced place terms available at the festival and other concessions the bookmakers were offering mean I shouldn't just be backing "blind" as I was doing last week. I was so busy getting bets on there seemed to be very little time for doing anything else. I can't use that as an excuse though, I need to be a bit smarter next time.

Tipping Legends had a great festival for their clients, finding 8 winners on the week - however, I made buttons from their festival bets, and lost money on the week following their selections.

Maths had two account bets, highlighting five horses and yielding a 20 point profit to advised stakes - I lost £500. Two places at 25/1 get me nothing unfortunately.

An unsatisfactory result, I'm sure you will agree.

As it was Cheltenham, I had additional bets which are not part of my usual portfolio.

Paul Jones' ante-post service performed with great credit once again this year. 30 bets, produced four winners at 14/1, 14/1 adv (got 12/1), 12/1 adv (got 10/1), and 10/1, as well as places at 33/1 (only the brilliance of Tony McCoy prevented this from being a winner), 6/1, 14/1, and 5/1. Also the place bet on Roll Along without the big 3 at 33/1 was successful but I was unable to get the bet on at the price. In all a profit of £1559 over 4 days was excellent.

Also I made additional bets based on Paul Jones' overnight e-mail service and Mathematician's additional thoughts on the Cheltenham races in his daily e-mails. As well I also had a few bets based on SLH's thoughts on the Cheltenham card - although not on day one when he liked Forpaddydeplaster !! I did this last year with a good deal of success, but this wasn't replicated this year.

The Paul Jones overnight trends e-mails are not tips as such, but suggestions based on where the likely winners are from a trends perspective. Paul, as I'm sure most of you know, writes the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide. For the first time this year, I didn't buy the book, and so relied on the e-mails to make the final selections.

The e-mails pinpointed 9 winners and 17 placed horses, from 3-4 horses shortlisted for each race, as I mentioned during the week I staked £100 on the first named ie "strongest" horse and £50 on the remainder. Had I level staked £50 on each selection, I would have been £562 better off.

Getting down to a manageable shortlist is a fine art, but will mention this one in passing. For the Freddie Williams Plate, Paul mentioned the good record of Venetia Williams - she ran two in the race - Something Wells and Ping Pong Sivola. Unfortunately for me Something Wells didn't make it to the final shortlist, which was a pity as he won at 33/1 just beating his stablemate who did make the list - fine margins and all that.

Maths e-mails gave 5 winners and 4 places including winners at 16/1 and 12/1.

I think dutching all these additional selections may well be the way to go in future. I will do some analysis over the next week or so, before I come to any final conclusions.

Plenty to think about, always learning in this game. I will get there in the end.



Hi mate.......regroup and start fresh again and i am sure you will do ok.

Chelt very competitive so perhaps with flat coming up your forunes will change for the better. There is just too much going on at Chelt as you say you dont get time to think and there are too many ponerables, if,what,but,could,should and all the rest.

All you need is one good bet this week to pull you round in the right direction meaning up.

Rgds Mark

JP said...

hi mate. Well a positive start to the new week.

Very disappointed with how last week eventually played out, however it's gone now and the only way is up !