Saturday, 21 March 2009

Two winners but a poor day again

Saturday 21 March


Two winners, two seconds and two thirds was the final score today, but it all added up to another losing day.

Still making no real progress, with the profit standing at less than £500 nearly 3 months into the year. Long long way to go of course with literally hundreds of bets still to come, but the fact I've managed to back winners so far this year at 80/1, 50/1, 33/1, 28/1 and many more at good prices and am still barely in profit is frustrating. The amazing amount of seconds I've backed (94) doesn't help either.

The racing today was blighted by non-runners, particularly at Haydock where the pre-racing going was given as good to soft. It was nowhere near that, as was evidenced by dust being kicked up in the back straight. The going was changed but the damage was done - 21 of the 69 horses entered didn't run.

The Haydock clerk of the course has got previous form for "misleading" going descriptions. He glories in the name of Kirkland Tellwright, and is either a useless b*stard or a lying b*stard. One thing is for sure, I wouldn't trust him to look after my back lawn !


Bets Advised


Tipping Legends

Strawberry 1pt win @ 6/1 - 3RD (SP 7/1)
Pyleigh Lady 1pt e/w @ 16/1 - LOST (SP 7/1)
Ravello Bay 1pt win @ 11/4 - 2ND (SP 7/2)
Wot Way Chief 1pt win @ 6/1 - LOST (SP 9/2)
Elnawin 1pt win @ 3/1 - 2ND (SP 5/2)
Without A Prayer 0.5 pts e/w @ 9/1 - LOST (SP 10/1)


The Form Analyst

Pyleigh Lady 1pt e/w @ 16/1 - LOST (SP 7/1)
Crozan 1.5 pts e/w @ 8/1 - 3RD (SP 9/2)


Mathematician

Selections
Spanish Conquest win @ 7/4 - WON (SP 4/5) - 30p rule 4 on early price
Pyleigh Lady e/w @ 14/1 - LOST (SP 7/1)
Argento Luna e/w @ 9/2 - WON (SP 10/3)


SLH A/W

Suits Me e/w @ 10/1 - LOST (SP 13/2)


Bets Placed

Strawberry £100 win @ 6/1.................(100)
Pyleigh Lady £100 win @ 16/1..............(100)
Ravello Bay £100 win @ 11/4...............(100)
Wot Way Chief £100 win @ 5/1..............(100)
Elnawin £100 win @ 3/1....................(100)
Without A Prayer £100 win @ 9/1...........(100)
Pyleigh Lady £100 win @ 16/1..............(100)
Crozan £150 win @ 8/1.....................(150)
Spanish Conquest £100 win @ 15/8...........131 - 30p Rule 4
Pyleigh Lady £100 win @ 14/1..............(100)
Argento Luna £90 win @ 5/1.................450
Argento Luna £10 win @ 9/2..................45
Suits Me £100 win @ 10/1..................(100)

Loss on day £424

8 comments:

JB said...

JP,
Did you manage to get any trading on the 1pt EW Pyleigh Lady.i figure if can make £30/day trading thats 10k per year to add to any other gains

jason said...

Hi JP,
Liked the comment about Kirkland Tellwright. I bet he has a problem with moles. Probably tries to shoot them with an elephant gun.

It is a frustrating time with all those place horses. I notice you are a more of a straight-win man. You can't fault a good win bet when things are going your way but those nearly-win place bets are like a thorn in the side at times. I generally bet win and place these days simply because I had hell-and-all place bets which can too easily knock the confidence. There is no right or wrong when it comes down to it - just what you feel is going to reap rewards long-term. The wins will click soon, it's just one of those frustrating times. Keep the faith.

Regards,
Jason

JP said...

Hi JB, I tried trading Pyleigh Lady. Had £158 risk free on the off, put an in-running lay of £50 @ 4.3, didn't get a match - think the lowest it touched was 5.2 - didn't try for any of the others today, but Pyleigh Lady was a big horse for me today.

Looking to bring trading into play this year, like you say small returns each day can really add up over the course of the year. However will struggle on work days, as I won't have a lot of time to monitor my positions. Probably as well to stick to trading just one or two a day and see how it goes.


Hi Jason, thanks for your comment once again.

It's difficult when you keep getting done - packed in with the e/w at the back end of last year - too many 4th's !! so everything has it's problems.

I've got analysis of the results from the services over the last year or so, which show win only to be the most profitable strategy. Indeed had I started on Jan 1 this year, I would be about 2k better off by now.

Things should even up over the course of the year, but I'm amazed by the number of seconds I'm backing at the moment - 7 in the last three days, and 94 this year (75 winners and 75 thirds in 2009).

Just got to keep putting the money down and wait for things to start moving my way.

jason said...

Hi JP,
Yes, there's certainly nothing wrong with straight wins - to be honest in the long term it is most likely to yield the greatest returns. Like I have said on many occassions betting is a very subjective pursuit and it has to fit with your personality in the sense that some people (like yourself) can hold out for the wins approach while others struggle with the wait. You know from your analysis what suits you so that is all that matters. I think the main thing is to have a consistent approach and confident in its format. I certainly wouldn't question anyone's approach to gambling.

Always enjoy your blog and seeing how your day have gone.

Regards,
Jason

The Banker said...

Hi JP, Why do you not just concentrate on SLH Private & leave the rest alone. If you followed him at £100 a point last year, you would have made £22,500 profit and this year you would have been just under £8000 in profit. Not a bad tax free income.

The Banker said...

Hi JP, Why do you not just follow SLH Private at £100 per point nd leave the rest alone. Last year you would have made £22,500 and this year you would have been just under £8000 in profit so far. Not a bad tax free extra income.

jason said...

Hi All,
NoseAhead has had a great day with two big priced winners. He is flying high with his selections.I know I keep singing his praises but he has been quite amazing of late.

Regards,
Jason

JP said...

Hi Jason, this nose ahead guy seems to know the time of day - certainly going to keep an eye on his site.

The banker - well SLH is very very good and I would recommend his service to anyone.

However, I'm not in too much of a hurry to discard the others. Had an excellent year in 2008 thanks to this portfolio and I'm sure that I will eventually achieve similar results this year.

Were I following the advised staking plans from my services, things wouldn't be looking bad at all, and also if I had started my current plan on 1 Jan I would be around 2k better off than I am now.

However, the current profits are what they are, and this is all I have managed so far this year - it can only get better !!

All the best
JP