Thursday, 7 May 2009

Another Difficult Day

Thursday 7 May

Another losing day today, although Optimum tipped their first winner since the middle of March and Tipping Legends also bagged a welcome winner - although not at Chester. Profitable day if you were following their staking plan, unfortunately I'm not so I lost on their selections today. Going to have another look at the way I play these, because the disparity between what I am achieving and their advised stakes is huge. Will go to work on this after the weekend.

Not much cheer elsewhere, with the most noteworthy tip being Tiger Moss from The Form Guru. Advised as a 0.5 pt e/w bet at 28/1, there were 5 non-runners and the horse set off at an SP of 7/1. Sent on to win the race turning out of the back and soon clear, traded 1.14 in-running but fell in a hole approaching the last and faded into fourth - the non runners having reduced the number of places to three ! Fortunately I put a lay in-running to recover my stake on this one, which is part of the personal bets profit today.

The best piece of tipping today keep from Andrew, one of the top guys in Graeme's forum, who wrote this about the Chester 2.45...

"I would be reasonably confident that Johnny Murtagh is on the best of the Aiden O'Brien colts - but not 100% sure... Add to this the fact that Golden Sword could get an uncontested lead and things threaten to get interesting ! It wouldn't be the first time that a supposed pacemaker has stolen a race - and certainly not the first time from Ballydoyle. For those with nothing better to do a back at around 50 - followed by a lay (possibly IR) could be the way to go... And if this thing shortens to around 20 at the off (which it's form entitles it to do) - remember where you heard about it first !!".

Great call from Andrew, and managed to get over £200 from this one with no risk at all - as always in situations like this, you wish you hadn't greened up in-running - but a very welcome profit on a race I wouldn't have otherwise played in.

Next update on here will probably be on Saturday evening - am going racing at Aintree tomorrow night, and on to Haydock on Saturday afternoon. Hoping I will have better news to report then.

Bets Advised

Equine Investments

Tartan Gunna 1.5 pts win @ 9/2 - 2ND (SP 4/1)

Optimum Racing

Invincible Heart 1pt e/w @ 5/1 - WON (SP 7/2)

The Form Analyst

Vainglory 1pt e/w @ 12/1 - LOST (SP 10/1)

Mathematician - Selections

Vainglory e/w @ 12/1 - LOST (SP 10/1)
Bushman e/w @ 20/1 - LOST (SP 20/1)

Nose Ahead

Viva Ronaldo 1pt e/w @ 20/1 - 4TH (SP 8/1)

SLH Exchange

Twist Bookie 2pts back @ min 2.0 - LOST
*NB non-runner at around 4/1 reduced price required, therefore backed at 10/11 with bookies

Tipping Legends

Fanjura 1pt win @ 4/1 - LOST (SP 9/2)
Viva Ronaldo 1pt e/w @ 22/1 - 4TH (SP 8/1)
Foundation Room 0.5 pts e/w @ 14/1 - 3RD (SP 11/1)
Desert Falls 0.5 pts e/w @ 25/1 - LOST (SP 18/1)
Classic Swain 3pts win @ 11/4 - WON (SP 7/4) - 10/15p rule 4
Mtoto's Prince 1 pt e/w @ 7/1 - 4TH (SP 8/1)

Chris - The Form Guru (Inside Rail)

Press The Button 1pt e/w @ 11/1 - LOST (SP 7/1)
Harlech Castle 1pt win @ 15/2 - 3RD (SP 9/1)
Goliath's Bay 1pt e/w @ 9/1 - LOST (SP 9/2)
Tiger Moss 0.5 pts e/w @ 28/1 - 4TH (SP 7/1)
Cawdor 2pts win @ 6/1 - 3RD (SP 10/3)
Raimond Ridge 0.5 pts e/w @ 18/1 - LOST (SP 10/1)

Bets Placed

Tartan Gunna £150 win @ 9/2..............(150)
Invincible Heart £50 e/w @ 5/1............300
Vainglory £50 e/w @ 12/1.................(100)
Vainglory £100 win @ 12/1................(100)
Bushman £100 win @ 20/1..................(100)
Viva Ronaldo £50 e/w @ 18/1..............(100)
Twist Bookie £100 win @ 10/11............(100)
Fanjura £100 win @ 4/1...................(100)
Viva Ronaldo £100 win @ 18/1 - 22/1......(100)
Foundation Room £100 win @ 14/1..........(100)
Desert Falls £100 win @ 25/1.............(100)
Classic Swain £100 win @ 11/4.............238
Classic Swain £50 win @ 3/1...............127
Classic Swain £50 lay @ 1.8...............(40)
Mtoto's Prince £100 win @ 13/2...........(100)
Press The Button £50 e/w @ 10/1..........(100)
Harlech Castle £50 win @ 15/2.............(50)
Goliath's Bay £50 e/w @ 9/1..............(100)
Tiger Boss £25 e/w @ 28/1.................(50)
Cawdor £100 win @ 5/1....................(100)
Rainford Ridge £25 e/w @ 16/1.............(50)
Personal Bets / Trades....................265

Loss on day £710


JB said...

Could you consider straight £200 win bet on Tipping Legends 2pt wins bets and £300 3pts.
At close to 30% yield for the strong bets would make a good return on funds.

Gary said...

I have been reading your blog with a great deal of interest.I am also a member of "Maths",now in my
third month.Clearly the effort he puts in is immense,however the bottom line is overall i'm losing money on his bets.Also sometimes his picks are on horses/types of race i usually wouldn't touch with a barge pole!!!.
May i ask,which of the services your in delivers the best long term
profits (my guess would be SLH),and which do you feel most confident about?.
Many thanks,and good luck.

JP said...

Hi JB,

As I've mentioned in my replies to other comments recently, I've yet to come to any firm conclusions as to any changes I might make to playing the TL selections. Just need to find a bit of time to do some decent analysis and then take it from there.


Thanks very much for your comment. Regarding Maths, when I first joined it took me a while to work out how best to bet his selections.

What I do now is just follow the account bets and selections in the top paragraph and don't bet any of the others.

I think this will be the most profitable way ahead for you - the number of account bets will increase as we move into the summer months and last year they were very profitable.

There's plenty of good advice in his forum as well if you want any suggestions from long-term members about getting the best from the service.

Obviously SLH has been the star of my portfolio for some time now, but on the whole I am pretty happy with what I've goT from most of my services.

The main cause for concern for me is Optimum and the way I feel at present I'm unlikely to renew when my sub runs out at the end of June.

Best of luck to you