Sunday, 10 May 2009

Bad end to a lousy week

Sunday 10 May

After a disappointing few days, I was expecting that today would be a quiet day with little action from the services.

As it was just Tipping Legends, and Chris The Form Guru gave me anything today - yet still managed to find 11 losers between them and take another £1000 off the years profits. The last loser of the day was the aptly named Notanotherdonkey, pulled up with a circuit to go !

Lost over £5000 this month already, with four £1000+ losing days in the last nine.

Tipping Legends are responsible for over 70% of this loss, and I'm going to have to make changes to the way I play on their selections.

The level stakes win only plan is clearly not working on their bets since I adopted it - their advised stakes for the year are still showing a profit, whereas I am now over £5000 down (£3600 of this in the last 10 days). Things could be even worse as I missed all their bets on Grand National day which all lost.

The addition of three new services this month will clearly increase the daily variance, although added together they are in front on the month so that's not a problem.

Not making a snap decision based on a poor week, after all I won £14,600 last month so I'm not under any pressure on that score - it just that things don't feel quite right at the moment and I'm not happy with it.

Trouble with this time of year is that it is now so busy, there ain't a lot of time to think. However I'll have a look at things tonight and see what I come up with.

The golf doesn't look too promising either, but I'll hold off settling these as losers in case Weekley or Villegas burn up the course in the last round and run into a place.

Anyway, today's tale of woe....

Bets Advised

Tipping Legends

Allonby Bay 2pts win @ 6/1 - 3RD (SP 7/2)
Not For Diamonds 1 pt e/w @ 7/1 - 2ND (SP 4/1)
Borora 1pt win @ 9/2 - LOST (SP 4/1)
Boulders Beach 0.5 pts e/w @ 7/1 - LOST (SP 8/1)

Chris, The Form Guru (Inside Rail)

Domenico 2pts win @ 7/1 - LOST (SP 9/2)
Pepperoni Pete 1pt e/w @ 14/1 - LOST (SP 14/1)
Bailey France 2pts win @ 8/1 - LOST (SP 8/1)
Wujood 0.5 pts e/w @ 25/1 - LOST (SP 18/1)
Piper's Legend 0.5 pts e/w @ 33/1 - LOST (SP 22/1)
Shield Of Zeus 2pts win @ 6/1 - LOST (SP 6/1)
Notanotherdonkey 2pts win @ 7/1 - LOST (SP 5/1)

Bets Placed

Allonby Bay £100 win @ 6/1..................(100)
Not For Diamonds £100 win @ 7/1.............(100)
Borora £100 win @ 9/2.......................(100)
Boulders Beach £100 win @ 7/1...............(100)
Domenico £100 win @ 7/1.....................(100)
Pepperoni Point £50 e/w @ 16/1..............(100)
Bailey France £100 win @ 7/1................(100)
Wujood £25 e/w @ 20/1 - 25/1.................(50)
Piper's Legend £25 e/w @ 25/1 - 33/1.........(50)
Shield Of Zeus £100 win @ 6/1...............(100)
Notanotherdonkey £100 win @ 6/1.............(100)

Loss on day £1000


simon said...

Hi JP.
Really enjoy your blog, I also follow the T L's and the recent run has been hard to take. I have always thought that you should follow the staking plan, more so with the naps. I think I am right in saying have a 50% strike rate give or take a few %. I have also been following Pricewise Extra on the RP site its been going well, T Segal was 2/2 yesterday & 1/2 today winner @ 6-1 today. They have really helped in limiting losses. I really think you should think about following their tips? Obviously it will get difficult placing so many bets each day & following all these tipsters & getting the best odds you can, but for free you could do alot worse! I managed to get 8's about todays winner with bet365 so that really helped with managing losses. I don't bet anywhere near the amounts you do, but I am always on the look out for free profitable tipsters and the blogs you hav pointed out on here have been good too. Shame not so good @ the mo!!

Have u thought about lowering the amount of services you follow & raising stakes? maybe placing all bets on betfair if you struggle to strike bets with certain bookies? I don't use betfair myself cos I place 90% of my bets on my phone using the betting apps you can download due to work etc.

Anyway just thought id put over my thoughts as I have been a silent viewer for some time!

Good luck, Simon

JP said...

Hi Simon,

Good comment and thanks very much indeed for it.

I'm always reviewing things on here and anything which will add to my profits is always actively considered. I've made plenty of changes since I started and there'll be plenty more as I go along I'm sure.

I am currently reviewing the way I play the Tipping Legends selections. Last year, the way I'm playing now was the most profitable strategy as far as I am aware, but that may be different now - it certainly feels like it ! But I until I have a decent amount of time to analyse things then I won't make any changes just yet.

Never looked at Pricewise Extra - I never read the pricewise column in the paper to be honest so it's not something I've ever considered following.

As you say though it is free, so maybe worth giving it a look.

I am really pressed for time these days through trying to get all the bets on and to do the best on the advised prices.

While ever I can get on with the bookies I will do, Betfair will come into play more and more I expect, but at the times the bets are given out, there is often not enough liquidity on betfair at the required price for the amount I want on. Like I say, I'll have to devote more time to Betfair over the next few months as my options with the bookies become less and less.

Eventually, I will probably move to having less bets but I do like a lot of action as you will have realised and that works for me most of the time.

One of the problems I do have is when I have multiple selections for the same race, but as the bets are given out at different times I just have to place them all and see what I end up with.

There are always things to think about though, and I'm always glad to hear what other people of think of what I'm doing.

Keep reading mate, and feel free to make any comments or suggestions any time you like.

All the best