Tuesday, 19 May 2009

Quiet start to the week, but a few changes

I've decided that the time has come to make one or two changes to the way I'm playing. These will take effect immediately.


Firstly, I'm sacking Optimum Racing. I've said before that once you lose confidence in a service then you don't reduce stakes you should stop. That is where I am now with Optimum. A loss so far this year of 73 points to their recommended staking plan and absolutely no sign of any improvement. Indeed there was no profit either in the last quarter of last year so we're looking at 8 months of poor results.

I've said before that their current staking plan is diabolical in my opinion, and the addition of the extra information on to the account smacks of desperation. I don't doubt that things will eventually take a turn for the better for this service, but "I'm out" as they say.


Further changes, I am now playing SLH account bets to £100 a point to recommended stakes (and will back each way where advised).

I am also discarding my win only plan on Tipping Legends, which has patently failed to work since I adopted it. I would be in profit had I been following advised stakes - instead I am £5000 down so far this year. A no brainer really, I will be betting £100 a point from now on.

I am reducing the value of the points on my bets with Chris, The Form Guru - no reflection on the results so far, just that there are so many bets given out each day in terms of points staked (something like 100 points a week so far) that I need to scale things down a bit to allow for natural variance of results. Therefore, the new stake is £25 per point rather than £50 per point.


Anyway on to the results


Monday 18 May


SLH A/W

Bold Cross win bet @ 5/1 - LOST (SP 9/2)


Equine Investments

Aureate 1.5 pts win @ 3/1 - WON (SP 2/1)


Tipping Legends

Stellenbosch 1pt win @ 4/1 - LOST (SP 3/1)
Munlochy Bay 1 pt e/w @ 8/1 - LOST (SP 4/1)


Maths - Selections

Wavertree Warrior e/w @ 7/1 - LOST (SP 11/2)


Making It Pay

Beautiful Lady 1pt win @ 8/1 - LOST (SP 15/2)


Nose Ahead

Diane's Choice 1pt win @ 9/1 - LOST (SP 10/1)


theformguru.com

Sharp Bullet 4pts e/w @ 10/3 - LOST (SP 15/8)

*fav w/d after bet given out, therefore staked four points win @ 2/1



Bets Placed

Bold Cross £100 win @ 11/2...............(100)
Aureate £150 win @ 3/1....................450
Stellenbosch £100 win @ 4/1..............(100)
Munlochy Bay £100 e/w @ 7/1..............(200)
Wavertree Warrior £100 win @ 6/1 - 7/1...(100)
Beautiful Lady £50 win @ 8/1..............(50)
Diane's Choice £100 win @ 9/1............(100)
Sharp Bullet £100 win @ 2/1..............(100)

Loss on day £300


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Tuesday 19 May


Would have been absolutely level today had I not had to pay Betfair £2.25 commission on my successful lay of Can Can Star, which was part of the placing of the Equine Investments bet today. However, would have been a winning day had I been around to take advantage of High Class Equine's advised price about their winner.

So largely forgettable really !


Bets Advised


Equine Investments

Can Can Star 1.5 pts win @ 12/1 - 4TH (SP 8/1)


Tipping Legends

Arniecoco 1pt win @ 6/1 - 3RD (SP 7/2)


The Form Analyst

Summer Dancer 1 pt e/w @ 7/1 - LOST (SP 13/2)


Nose Ahead

Nusoor 0.5 pts e/w @ 16/1 - 20/1 - LOST (SP 16/1)


High Class Equine

Reignier 1pt e/w @ 7/1 - WON (SP 5/1)

* two hours late getting this message due to work commitments, best price then 4/1. Took with BOG and therefore got 5/1 SP.


Chris, The Form Guru (I/Rail)

Midnight Fantasy 3pts win @ 7/2 - LOST (SP 4/1)
Hereaux 2pts win @ 8/1 - LOST (SP 11/2)
Summer Dancer 2pts win @ 7/1 - LOST (SP 13/2)
Cwm Rhondaa 3pts win @ 5/1 - WON (SP 7/2)
Can Can Star 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 - LOST (SP 8/1)




Bets Placed


Can Can Star £200 win @ 10/1................(200)
Can Can Star £50 lay @ 7.2 (net)............. 48
Arniecoco £100 win @ 6/1....................(100)
Summer Dancer £50 e/w @ 7/1.................(100)
Nusoor £50 e/w @ 16/1 - 20/1................(100)
Reignier £50 e/w @ 4/1 (bog).................300
Midnight Fantasy £75 win @ 7/2...............(75)
Hereaux £50 win @ 8/1........................(50)
Summer Dancer £50 win @ 7/1..................(50)
Cwm Rhondaa £75 win @ 5/1....................375
Can Can Star £25 e/w @ 12/1..................(50)

Loss on day £2

3 comments:

ReachingTheSky said...

Hello JP,

i am following your Blog since a few days. I have the same intention like you had. I want to play with a few tipster and a betting bank of 10.000. The time is not so far that i have that bank but i am member with Equine Investment and hope this season will finish with a profit of 200-300 points profit so that i have reached that bank. After that i inted to follow two more tipsters. What do you think about my plan to follow SLH, Equine I., and Tipping Legends ? I dont want to have more than 3-4 in my portfolio because i think a bank of 10000 wouldn't be enough.

I wish you all the best for the future.

kind regards,
Dennis

JP said...

Hi Dennis,

I'm a bit short of time this week, but have got a day at home on Friday and so will reply to you in full then.


JP

JP said...

Hi Dennis,

Sorry for the delay in responding to this comment.

Assuming your £10,000 bank is available to you after paying out all your subs then you need to consider the following.

This is direct from EI's welcome mail for this year...


Analysis of past results has found the win strike rate to be around 18%, with an average price of around 7/1.

Such a strike rate can lead to frequent losing runs of 10 or more, therefore, if you intend to bet a percentage of your bank then it is recommended that you do not exceed 4%.

A losing run can have a detrimental affect on your bank and hence a lower than normal stake on the next winner and this is not efficient.

We recommend you follow the advised points stakes, a betting bank of 150 points should be ample and, to level stakes, a 75 point bank should be fine.

If you are betting from a betting bank and wish to be more aggressive, then I would recommend that you do not drop below a 100 point bank for advised stakes and a 50 point bank for level stakes.

Any increase in stakes should be done gradually, erratic and emotional betting will cost you in the long term.

It's important to bet within your 'comfort zone' and in proportion to your betting bank.

*******

SLH operates three different services, his mainline as well as his exchange and all weather service.

For his mainline he recommends a 100 point bank.

Tipping Legends operate a horse and golf service. Again a 100 point bank is recommended for the horses.

So you're looking at a 350 point bank to follow all three main horse services.

However personally I think you would be OK at 250 points - ie £40 a point and I think you would achieve decent returns based on those stakes. Clearly you have to take into account the cost of the subs and your returns have to be in relation to that

Nothing to stop you increasing your stakes on the back of any success you have of course, or just take two services and add further ones over time.

Hope this of some help to you, and if you have any questions please come back to me.


JP