Saturday, 25 July 2009

Some week this is turning out to be !!!

Saturday 25 July


Another big winner for Equine Investments with Bravely, advised as a two point win bet at 9/1, living up to his name - took the lead as they came into the final furlong but was hanging on grimly at the end, and passed the post just a head in front of the favourite Luscivious.

Their other selection Redford was third, advised each way at 11/1.

Clearly they are reading the races very well at the moment, as illustrated by this one liner on the Newcastle 4.45...

"Mastership, Osteopathic Remedy, Cobo Bay and Eton Rifles shortlisted, eace looks a bit too competitive but those are in my value order, I was hoping for a bigger price on Membership".

Mastership was around 7/1 at lunchtime when the message came out - drifted during the afternoon and on-course and won at 14/1 ! - unbacked by me I should add. The other three horses mentioned finished 5th, 3rd and 2nd !

Tipping Legends were back in action today, and they also advised Redford each way. Nothing doing from their other selections though. Hoping for better things with their Goodwood special next week. JC was tempted by Sri Putra in the Ascot 3.15, but instead went for Weald Park - and is the way of things at the moment Sri Putra won at 12/1.

Gags is doing the Making It Pay selections on his own at the moment and tipped up Gallego in the first at Salisbury - got a good ride from his amateur jockey to take the race in the last 100 yards. He was also very keen on Bravely, but was beaten to the punch by EI and once 9/1 became 5/1 within a couple of minutes that was the end of that !

Maths had a rare account bet today, but Formula could only finish a very poor fourth - backed from 7/4 to 10/11, gelded since it's last run and doesn't look too in love with the game, probably there's only one way it will "Winalot" !

Couple of losers from Nose Ahead, and a losing day for The Form Guru despite finding Excusez Moi 3rd at 20/1 adv, and Summer Dancer 4th at 10/1 adv.

Finally, had a great result on the Australian football overnight with an all correct accumulator and was already over £1100 in profit when I got out of bed this morning !





Bets Advised


Equine Investments

Redford 1pt e/w @ 12/1 - 3RD (SP 10/1)
Bravely 2pts win @ 9/1 - WON (SP 5/1)


Nose Ahead

Admiral Dundas 1pt win @ 8/1 - LOST (SP 4/1)
Flash McGahon 1pt win @ 8/1 - LOST (SP 16/1)


Chris, The Form Guru

Roker Park 2pts win @ 8/1 - LOST (SP 11/2)
Excusez Moi 1 pt e/w @ 20/1 - 3RD (SP 14/1)
Haljaferia 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 - LOST (SP 8/1)
Perception 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 - LOST (SP 8/1)
Summer Dancer 1 pt e/w @ 10/1 - 4TH (SP 13/2)
Secret Society 2pts win @ 15/2 - 2ND (SP 5/1)
Taqdeyr 1 pt e/w @ 16/1 - LOST (SP 12/1)
Warrior Conquest 2pts win @ 11/2 - LOST (SP 11/2)


Making It Pay

Gallego 1pt e/w @ 9/2 - WON (SP 4/1)


Maths Account Bet

Formula £100 win @ 13/8 - 7/4 rec stake - LOST (SP 10/11)


Tipping Legends

Weald Park 0.5 pts e/w @ 25/1 - LOST (SP 16/1)
Redford 1 pt e/w @ 11/1 - 3RD (SP 10/1)
Frozen Fire 0.5 pts e/w @ 20/1 - LOST (SP 20/1)
Vinces 1pt win @ 12/1 - LOST (SP 8/1)
Star Of Pompey 1pt win @ 5/1 - LOST (SP 9/2)
Dazinski 1pt win @ 4/1 - 3RD (SP 5/2)



Bets Placed


Redford £100 e/w @ 11/1........................175
Bravely £200 win @ 9/1........................1800
Admiral Dundas £100 win @ 8/1.................(100)
Flash McGahon £100 win @ 16/1.................(100)
Roker Park £50 win @ 7/1.......................(50)
Excusez Moi £25 e/w on BF (net).................71
Haljaferia £25 e/w @ 12/1......................(50)
Perception £25 e/w on BF.......................(50)
Summer Dancer £25 e/w @ 9/1.....................31
Secret Society £50 win @ 7/1...................(50)
Taqdeyr £25 e/w @ 16/1.........................(50)
Warrior Conquest £50 win @ 9/2.................(50)
Gallego £50 e/w @ 9/2..........................270
Formula £250 win @ 13/8.......................(250)
Weald Park £50 e/w @ 20/1.....................(100)
Redford £100 e/w @ 11/1........................175
Frozen Fire £50 e/w @ 20/1....................(100)
Vinces £100 win @ 12/1........................(100)
Star Of Pompey £100 win @ 5/1.................(100)
Dazinski £100 win @ 4/1.......................(100)
Personal Bets - Aussie Football...............1162

Profit on day £2434

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello JP

great blog, I read it most days.

just your opinion required......

what do you think of having a price cut off point, for bets, say 3/1 for bets, as in only bet when 3/1 or above.

an example today, and I appreciate its a one off, but imo is replicated, is that the 50 on Gallego, a good win bet, is lost on the 250 on a 13/8 shot.

have you a view over time?

my opinion is that 'whoever' cant hit a certain % strike rate over time (say 33%) so pitch it at a level 'they' can, the price level that is.

simple maths.

all the best..........

andyg1 said...

Hi JP how do you manage to get on with the firms are you accounts not restricted?

Equines prices always come under pressure quickly do you have trouble getting on at the right prices?

I used to do what you are doing for several years but my patience with getting on over the phone with the firms has wained.

All the best

Andy

JP said...

Hi anon,

There's probably something in what you say. I have thought about it but would need to do some analysis of my spreadsheets to see whether it would be worth cutting some of the bets out.

EI made a point a while ago that some of the shorter ones he puts up enables him to use the winnings to go for some of the more speculative shots - assuming they win of course !

They also help keep the losing runs manageable - which to be honest don't really bother me that much.

Yesterday's bet though was an account bet from Maths - and I do stake these pretty heavily in comparison to the other bets.

It is something I will look into though and if it's beneficial to make a change then I will do.

Thanks for your comment.


Andy, as you'll appreciate getting the bets on at the best prices is what this is all about.

I am pretty much restricted by every bookie I use now, with the noteable exception of Bet365 who still seem to want to take every bet I send their way.

How much longer this will continue I don't know as I've won a hell of a lot off them recently - nearly £10,000 in the last week !

While they continue to accomodate me, they will be my first port of call. I would rather take a point under the odds and get it all on in one go, than waste 5 minutes and get messed around trying and failing to achieve better prices - with the way EI and SLH prices go, I'd never get it all on.

As an example the other day, one of TFA's bets was advised at a minimum price of 10/1 (which was B365's price) but as big as 14/1 with Hills and one or two others.

I had to split a bet of £100 e/w into six different bets to get my money on - William Hill on the phones wouldn't take the £25 e/w I asked for - cut me to £10 e/w and they were the same on the net - and I still had to take some of B365's 10/1.

When B365 cut me, then I'm going to have to re-think things.

Until then, I'll keep going as best I can.

All the best
JP