Saturday, 14 November 2009

Wicked Daze !

Saturday 14 November

I'd already typed out tonight's blog entry and how this had been the worst day I've ever had with 24/24 losers on the horses (26 if you include Pricewise Extra and Maths mention).

However that was before the 8.50 at Wolves. Tipping Legends had advised a two point win bet on Wicked Daze at 8/1. The horse won the race by a short head and so I was feeling pretty relieved at that point. Then a stewards enquiry was called - and unbelievably they chucked Wicked Daze out.

I was absolutely fuming, until someone reminded me that most bookmakers these days pay out on horses who are disqualified. Thankfully I got everything on with the bookies and didn't use Betfair so after what had been a truly terrible day I'm actually feeling pretty good. It was a shocking decision though.

Knew it was going to be a tough day when I found myself £600 down after ten minutes when SLH's exchange pick was beaten into second place and the Isiris each way double was busted by Leulahleulahlay who drifted from 7/4 to 3/1 on-course and then ran a truly shocking race, never jumped a hurdle and was beaten after half a mile.

The Form Analyst has tweaked his staking plan in order to give more flexibility to putting bets on the accounts, but no immediate pay-off with five losers and seven points lost.

Six losers from The Form Guru two thirds, two fourths and According To Pete missed the places by one in the Paddy Power.

Torrid run for Punter Profits continues with double system bet Barizan beaten into second, Poquelin second at 12/1 although never in with a chance, and Maljimar unplaced.

No joy so far for Paul Jones' midweek ante-post service with both Northern Alliance and Tartak out of the money.

Tipping Legends had three other bets on the day, with Hello Bud collecting the place money but the big bet on Chapoturgeon came unstuck when he hit the deck.

Two out of four from Winabob and a half point profit on the week - wooohoooo !!! thanks to a 90th minute goal from Rotherham.

Pricewise Extra and Maths mention both finished out with the washing, and I had £100 on the football which lost.

I was so far down going into the evening session, over £4000 down, that I decided to have a £100 double on the two remaining bets - if they both won I couldn't get out so decided to go for the jackpot - after all what was another £100 today. Grudge was collared in the last 25 yards in the 6.20 and I knew the game was up for the day. However as it turned out I was a neck away from hitting the jackpot with an 80/1 double !

Bets Advised

SLH Private

Baltic Pathfinder 2pts win @ min 4/1 - LOST (SP 4/1)
* saddle slipped and pulled up turning out of back straight when holding every chance *

SLH Exchange

Predictive 2pts back @ min 2.6 - 2ND


Grudge e/w @ min 8/1 - 2ND (SP 8/1)

The Form Analyst

Midnight Chase 1pt win @ 4/1 - 3RD (SP 7/2)
Best Actor 1pt win @ 25/1 - LOST (SP 16/1)
Peppertree Lane 2pts win @ 3/1 - LOST (SP 11/4)
Le Beau Bai 1pt e/w @ 10/1 - LOST (SP 10/1)
King Jack 0.5 pts e/w @ 16/1 - LOST (SP 12/1)

Chris, The Form Guru

Breakwater House 2pts win @ 6/1 - LOST (SP 9/2)
Russian Trigger 2pts win @ 15/2 - 4TH (SP 6/1)
Sendali 2pts win @ 7/1 - 4TH (SP 5/1)
Leau Du Nil 2pts win @ 7/1 - 3RD (SP 5/1)
Great Endeavour 2pts win @ 8/1 - 3RD (SP 8/1)
According To Pete 1pt e/w @ 18/1 - 5TH (SP 9/1)

Punter Profits

Barizan (systems B/E) - 2ND (SP 5/4)
Maljimar (system E) - LOST (SP 9/1)
Poquelin (system E) - 2ND (SP 12/1)

Paul Jones Midweek Ante-Post

Northern Alliance win @ 10/1 - 12/1 - LOST (SP 10/1)
Tartak e/w @ 25/1 - LOST (SP 18/1)


Predictive / Leulahleulahlay - 4pts e/w double - 2ND (SP 7/4) / LOST (SP 3/1)

Tipping Legends

Hello Bud 1pt e/w @ 7/1 - 3RD (SP 8/1)
Chapoturgeon 4pts win @ 7/1 - LOST (SP 7/1)
Time Electric 1pt e/w @ 12/1 - LOST (SP 8/1)
Wicked Daze 2pts win @ 8/1 - 2ND (SP 6/1) - First past the post, disq and placed second.


Crewe @ evens - LOST 1-2
Rotherham @ 6/4 - WON 2-1
Rushden @ evens - WON 2-1
AFC Wimbledon - DREW 2-2

Bets Placed

Baltic Pathfinder £200 win @ 4/1 - 5/1..............(200)
Predictive £200 back @ 2.66.........................(200)
Grudge £100 win @ 8/1...............................(100)
Midnight Chase £100 win @ 4/1.......................(100)
Best Actor £50 win @ 25/1, £50 win on BF............(100)
Peppertree Lane £200 win @ 7/2......................(200)
Le Beau Bai £100 e/w @ 10/1.........................(200)
King Jack £50 e/w @ 16/1............................(100)
Breakwater House £50 win @ 11/2, £50 win @ 6.0......(100)
Russian Trigger £100 win @ 8.6......................(100)
Sendali £100 win @ 7/1..............................(100)
L'eau Du Nil £100 win @ 7/1.........................(100)
Great Endeavour £33 win @ 8/1, £67 win on BF........(100)
According To Pete £50 e/w @ 16/1 - 18/1.............(100)
Barizan £300 win @ evens, £100 win @ 2.4............(400)
Maljimar £100 win @ 8/1, £100 on BF.................(200)
Poquelin £148 @ 14/1, £52 on BF.....................(200)
Northern Alliance £200 win @ 10/1 - 12/1............(200)
Tartak £100 e/w @ 20/1 - 25/1.......................(200)
Predictive / Leulahleulahlay £200 e/w dbl...........(400)
Hello Bud £50 e/w @ 7/1, £50 e/w @ 7/1 (BOG)..........88
Chapoturgeon £267 @ 7/1, £133 on BF.................(400)
Time Electric £100 e/w @ 12/1.......................(200)
Wicked Daze £200 win @ 8/1..........................1440 - paid FPP, 10p rule 4
Crewe £200 @ evens..................................(200)
Rotherham £200 @ 6/4.................................300
Rushden £118.23 @ evens, £81.77 @ 11/10..............208
AFC Wimbledon £200 win @ 6/4........................(200)
Personal - Pricewise Extra / Maths mention..........(100)
Personal - misc trading etc.........................(100)
Personal - Grudge / Wicked Daze £100 double.........(100)

Loss on day £2664


Anonymous said...

JB says,
This is worst run have known for pricewise must be close to 2weeks without a winner.

Anonymous said...

Seriously JP you need to get rid of TFA, I read on SBC that you 2 are friends, but you need to take some tough decisions...period. I appreciate patience is required, but yet another staking plan change, he is clearly on a major downward spiral, time to hit that eject JP.

RaceBets said...

Just my view JP but you should be looking to dutch in those races where there is more than 1 selection from different services...have you ever looked into it as it would make more sense and I am sure improve your profitability.


Alan said...

Hi JP,
I've been following your blog for several weeks now and find it a great help. First off, its been encouraging to see someone making serious money out of the game. I've done quite well this season since joining Equine Investments and you have inspired me to raise my sights somewhat. I thank you for that. Secondly,I have been able to find solace for my bad days when I go to your blog and find you suffering also. Thanks for that too. I'm an old Maths investor, deeply saddened by my hero's fall into unprofitable times but unable to stop putting my money up, admittedly in smaller amounts, in memory of the good days. Now I have EI and SLH in my arsenal and I'm doing quite well. Recently I've started using Hugh Taylor from ATR and yesterday he came up trumps with two placed and Doric Lady romping home. That saved my bacon and I thought I'd mention it because if you'd been on them it would have saved yours also on what was otherwise, I agree, an appalling day.

All the very best for the future,


Anonymous said...

Another shocking day and a shocking week all round. Let's hope normal business can be resumed tomorrow.

Danny R said...

Pricewise are not worth the hassle and TFA is a pile of shit. There is a rumour on the SBC that you are seeing each other. Is this true?

JP said...

Hi JB,

Good to see they spiked the losing run today. Only got 8/1 though as I couldn't load the page on the RP site.


Hi Anon,

Thanks for your comment about TFA.

Yes Graeme and myself have become friends over the last year or so that his service has been running.

However, having said that, as with any other service I am following the only reason I am a member of TFA is to make money out of it.

The recent run has been absolutely horrendous, and the service is currently 68 points off the peak points total which was reached on 20 July.

He recommends a betting bank of 100 points (personally I have set him at 200 points) so he's burnt his way 2/3 of his recommended bank in the last 4 months. However that is why you have a bank, to get through periods such as this.

As to the future, well that remains to be seen. If he loses another 30 points then the service will be dead anyway as he will have lost his bank and that will be it - or alternatively he will turn it around and get back to where he was a few months ago.

I don't know what will happen, but this is the same service that won 140 points from 1 April to 20 July !

Can't blame anyone for wanting to bail out on the back of a run like this. If you joined at the beginning of August then it's looking pretty bad. I've encountered similar runs following other services, and you have to make a decision sometimes about what to do.

As far as TFA is concerned, I'm carrying on. Anyone who can do what he did in the summer clearly has something to offer, and I hope he can recapture that form and confidence somehow.

Whether I'm making the right decision, time will tell.


Hi Dave,

I try and follow the staking plans to the letter as much as possible, with one or two exceptions, so from time to time I get a situation such as the PP yesterday where I have multiple selections in the same race. It can be very frustrating at times but I have to view each service as a separate entity and follow their bets accordingly.

However, I am looking at additional strategies for when I'm doing this full-time next year, so I'm sure I can run other things alongside what I'm doing now.

Thanks for your comment.


Hi Alan,

Good to hear from you, and glad that you enjoy the blog and it is useful for you.

One of the reasons I write it every night is to try and maintain a sense of perspective, and detachment almost, as some of the amounts involved can be quite unreal sometimes.

See you're a Maths subscriber, don't really know what's happened this year - just never got going at all.
I see it looks like next year will be the last so maybe he can go out in a blaze of glory !

With SLH and EI on your side you should do very well. I do follow Hugh Taylor on the ATR site and his results have been brilliant. However as with all things in this game, price is everything - I did some checking a couple of months ago and he actually makes a loss at SP, and the advised prices don't last for very long. Good luck though if you can get them because he does very well !

Keep reading and continued success to you.


Hi anon,

Hope you had a decent day on Sunday, and that things go well next week.


Hi Danny,

Thanks for your comment.

Yes, it's all true - as soon as I've sold my house I shall be moving to Dundee.

I've commented above regarding TFA. Also I assume you didn't back the Pricewise winner today because it was too much hassle for you. Have to put a bit of work into this sometimes.

Best of luck to you, sounds like you might need it.

RaceBets said...

JP I just launched my private service on Friday after running the site free for 6 months and had a great start. Landed the 1-2 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup AND tipped up Khyber Kim for the Greatwood at 20/1 in the forum and to subscribers. Since the end of September we have a 33% s/r and 321% ROI so if you fancy adding in another service or checking out my results then feel free to pop over to FormBet.



JP said...

Hi Dave,

Best of luck with the service. I'll take a good look at it and let you know.