Sunday, 13 December 2009

Off the edge of a cliff !!!

The final graph for the year gives an illustration of how badly things have gone over the last couple of months...




20 comments:

Anonymous said...

HI JP,

been following your blog now for a few months.. I have had a similar run to yours in this time, though not at the same scale as Im only just starting out.

To be honest it has made me think is it really worth trying to go professional? It is a dream for many people (including myself) but is it really all its cracked up to be?

I have a very young family and even with your bankroll I dont know whether I could rely on it as my main source of income. Having said that your income of £30grand tax free for the year is a lot better than what Ive earned grafting 50 hours a week in a job!

I have one question please. How do you think you would have coped if you had had this recent losing run right at the start of the venture, before you made the big profits? Obviously you would have needed an even stronger mindset to get through it?

Thanks for letting us all in on your adventure, it has certainly given me a lot of food for thought.

Looking forward to signing back in mid feb!

Good luck and I hope you have a great break.

Tom Rhodes

Cassini said...

http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2009/12/all-in-mind.html

Hope you don't mind me using you...

Good luck next year.

Alan said...

It has been quite an education following you. In particular, recently, your ability to keep up the size of the stakes in the bad times has been an eyeopener for me. Working at a much lower level of staking I've severely reduced my stakes as the dreadful times continued, leaving me having not lost quite so much money but making me aware that I'm somewhat lacking on the courage side of things.

Have a good holiday and a Merry Christmas. May 2010 be a successful and prosperous one for us all. All the very best to you and yours, Alan

smudge said...

Hi Jp

First of all please could you tell me how you do that graph online have been looking to do one those for ages but never know how to go about it.

secondly , i would like to thank you for sharing your efforts over the past 12 months i have found this blog a source of comfort and inspiration along my rocky road of gambling so i very much hope you enjoy your well earned break and i look forward to reading about your exploits in the new year.

regards

Paul

Jonathan said...

Hi JP, I've really enjoyed reading your blog this year. It's good to have the level of detail that you put into your daily record keeping. I admire you for that and it's very useful as many tipsters fail to keep an accessible record of bets advised to prospective/current subscribers. It's a pity that's things tailed off profits-wise this winter but you still probably earned more gambling this year than you did in your office job and it's all tax free! So am I right in thinking you are packing in your job this month and then getting stuck in as a full tim gambling professional in February without the drudgery of the world of work? Good luck and enjoy the Christmas and New Year break. Best wishes, Jonathan

Jonathan said...

By the way, how much are you aiming to win next year as a full-time (yet unemployed) professional gambler? £50,000? Can you remind me what you were aiming to make this year doing it part-time around your job?

Graham Hyde said...

Drop Isiris and Maths. Go in hard on SLH next year. £200 per point. And repeat the dose for Equine Investments. Keep the small stakes with Chris the Form Guru. Also scrap the SLH AW service as it's a waste of time.

Adem Poric said...

You must feel quite empty today with no bets to deal with. That's how I always feel if I have a day off. Still after three or four days you start forgetting about racing. It's easy to switch off if you forget for just a few days.

JP said...

Hi Tom,

Interesting question !

I think the key to this game is how you set yourself up.

Originally when I started this just over two years ago, I'd set aside £10,000 - being £6000 as a betting bank and £4000 to pay the subs.

I had much more available to me if I wanted to use it, but in all honesty whilst I hoped it would work out, I had nothing concrete on which to base that on.

I figured that while I could afford to lose more than I'd set aside, I would pretty much know whether there was any future in this after the first few months and if I lost the 10K then that would be enough.

That was my thinking at the time at least.

As it's transpired, despite many ups and downs, changes in staking, changes in the portfolio etc, things have gone amazingly well over the last couple of years, which have to led me to the decision to give it a go full time from next year.

But, as I've commented elsewhere, the last couple of months have illustrated the precarious nature of what I'm intending to do, and so I need to make changes in order to try and maximise my returns whilst minimising the risk to my capital.

I'm thinking things over at the minute, I need to be reducing my exposure from what it has been - having £4000 - £5000 at risk every Saturday as I have had in recent weeks, is way too much really.

There will be changes to the porfolio - two or three of the services haven't been performing and I'll be dropping them, and replacing them if I can find something suitable.

I'll also modify the stakes, and incorporate trading into my daily plays as well.

If it all sounds a bit vague, then it is really - I know what I want to do next year, just working out the best way of doing it.

From your point of view, just stick to the age old advice - don't bet with money you can't afford to lose.

Set yourself up with a decent bank of money, away from your day to day living expenses (setting up a separate bank account would be the best thing to do), and use that to bet with. Assuming all goes well, you can build things up, and get to where you want to be - or at least in a position to make a decision.

Whether you're full-time or part-time, the inevitable ups and downs won't be any different, it's how you deal with them that matters.

Best of luck to you
JP


*


Hi Cassini,

No problem, read your post the other day and it made a lot of sense. Pretty much summed up how I was feeling last weekend.

After a few days of thinking about it, then I'm absolutely delighted to clear 30K in the last year !

Thanks for the comment.

JP said...

Hi Alan,

Thanks very much for your comment.

As I've mentioned in my earlier reply, the bad run at the end of the year has made me realise that I was pushing my luck a bit with the stakes I was using and I've taken a bit of a hit.

I've been messing around with the staking ever since I started doing this two years ago, and I've still not got it right.

This run over the last few weeks has hit everyone who's doing a similar thing to me, and if you've cut your stakes in the face of this run, then it's not a lack of courage - you've been very sensible.

It's better than being put out of the game altogether, as I'm sure will have happened to some.

It's been an eye-opener, not least for me, as to what can happen - we are only gambling after all and there is no guarantee of success.

Just take time to evaluate things - set up a decent bankroll and keep your stakes in line with it.

Very best wishes for Christmas and the New Year to you and your family.

*

Hi Paul,

The graph is from within excel. If you record your results in an excel spreadsheet, then you can create a graph from there.

Have a look and if you want some instructions give me a shout back - maybe I can e-mail you something.

Probably have to be next year now to be honest.

Thanks for your good wishes, glad you've enjoyed reading about my adventures this year !

Catch up with you sometime in the New Year.

All the best
JP

JP said...

Anon #1 and #2.

Regarding Isiris, haven't been betting this past week, but still called to listen to the messages everyday.

Things seem to have gone from bad to worse - another 30+ points lost this week ?

Seems to have gone off the rails totally - and I didn't back Sea The Stars, so I've not got that to fall back on.

I only care about the absolute disaster since he came back in September. By my reckoning he's gone from 37 points up to 150 points down in two months !

Will be interested to hear how he gets on while I'm away.

As things stand, I'm not prepared to lay out another penny until there's a sign that he hasn't totally lost the plot !


*


Hi Jonathan,

As of last Tuesday, I am no longer in paid employment and it is my intention to support myself next year through what I can make from betting.

I've not set a financial target for 2010, other than to make enough to pay the bills and keep me fed and watered !

Looking back to the start of this year I posted the following on 1 January...

Target for 2009 then from the tipsters - a profit of £30,000 before accounting for subs so I would like to clear £25,000 this year. It's a tall order but I think the last few months have shown what is possible, and I'm confident that I can achieve it...


not a bad guess really !



Thanks for your comments over the last few months and best wishes for Christmas and the new year.

JP


*


Hi Graham,

Not finalised things for next year yet. It's unlikely I could get any more on EI than I already do, and it's interesting that SLH hasn't actually made a profit in the last 6 months on his mainline.

The all weather service is a waste of time and I'm dropping it. Same for Isiris unless there is a dramatic change in results.

*


Hi Adem,

Really enjoyed the last few days to be honest.

Should take time off more often !

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Talkbet said...

Hello mate, nice blog have added a link to it, would you mind linking back to mine ?
http://talkbet.typepad.com

Thanks!

JaSoNLiVeS said...

Hi JP,
I just started for 2010 a blog similar to this one you have here to make a report of my betting "career"..could you please add me to your blogs list?

This is the link of my blog:
http://jasonbetting.blogspot.com/

Thank you very much and good luck for new year!!

Anonymous said...

Hi JP,

Thank's for your efforts to write this blog. Keep up the good work and best of luck to new start!

smartbetworld.com

Anonymous said...

HI JP,
love the blog!

I've just set up a free tipping site you might be interested in.

www.PackedPockets.com

Have a look at the results section anyway and see what you think. All proofed on the betfair forum.

Best of luck in 2010.
Pj

SimpleBet said...

Brilliant read, really interesting.

We have only just found on line blogs from people like yourself and have to admire you for a great insight.

Added you blog to our favourites and will be looking forward to when you get back in full flow.

The very best of luck for going pro full time.

razorhater said...

hey JP, I'd like to do a link exchange with you. Check out my site http://fofreepicks.com and let me know if you want to exchange.

Contact: fofreepicks@gmail.com

Thanks,

Razor

Anonymous said...

SLH AW service in cracking form and SLH private service cruising into a huge profit. Get going fast JP while the good run lasts!

JP said...

Hi,

Thanks for your comments and good wishes.

I've updated the links on the blog.

Best of luck.
JP