Thursday, 10 December 2009

Smoke On The Water

...that must be me crashing and burning again !

Thursday 10 December

Another day of absolute torture, with twenty one bets producing just a single winner at 5/2, and a successful lay from SLH.

Even then, the lay only lost because it fell at the last when in the lead !

The current run has dropped me back below £40,000 for the year after today's latest disaster, and I've now lost £17,000 in the last five weeks - scary stuff.

Got the two day Cheltenham meeting coming up and no doubt will have bets coming out of my ears again - need something to go my way.

Today, as alluded to in the headline Deep Purple was my bogey horse - not for the first time either. He chinned Tamarinbleu in the Charlie Hall at the end of October, so safe to say I'm not a fan !

Another ridiculous situation in the Peterborough Chase - where I had four different horse tipped, five with the Pricewise Extra selection - there were only seven runners ! Not one of them put Deep Purple up though, so once again I was left cursing as he romped to victory. Tartak would have been my best result, but he blundered away his chance with a poor round of jumping.

The only winner of the day was Kerada for Tipping Legends, but on a busy day that still meant a loss of £400 on their bets today.

Nothing doing from The Form Guru either, and no hard luck stories either today - and they're struggling as well this month, with over 50 points lost since the first, when they had a good day.

I'm running out of things to say about Punter Profits, but another three losers today including two at very short prices.

Pure system bets these, and it was pointed out on their message board last night that in the last three years covering over one thousand bets, they've had seven losing runs of 10 or more - with four of them in November and December this year ! It was in November when I increased my stakes - talk about timing.

The two bets from Isiris were in the Peterborough Chase as well - with Albertas Run in third and Something Wells falling.

Four bets in total with Pricewise Extra and the Maths mentions, and I lost another £60 on Betfair today, messing around trying to get a better price on one of the bets.

Bets Advised

SLH Exchange

Recif De Thaix 2pts lay at max 2.0 - LOST

Chris, The Form Guru

Bob Mountain 1pt e/w @ 12/1 - LOST (SP 8/1)
Picaroon 2pts win @ 5/1 - 3RD (SP 7/2)
Nearby 2pts win @ 13/2 - LOST (SP 7/1)
Estrica 1pt e/w @ 20/1 - LOST (SP 12/1)
Long Hop 3pts win @ 4/1 - LOST (SP 3/1)

Punter Profits

Classic Chic (system A) - LOST (SP 11/4)
Genari (C) - 3RD (SP 6/4)
Ceilidh Royal (F) - LOST (SP 4/5)


Albertas Run 2pts win @ 9/2 - 3RD (SP 7/2)
Something Wells 2pts win @ 16/1 - 18/1 - LOST (SP 20/1)

Tipping Legends

Picaroon 2pts win @ 5/1 - 3RD (SP 7/2)
Tartak 2pts win @ 10/1 - 2ND (SP 8/1)
Tidal Bay 1pt win @ 11/4 - 4TH (SP 15/8)
Fourty Acers 2pts win @ 11/2 - LOST (SP 4/1)
Kerada 2pts win @ 9/4 - WON (SP 5/2)
Viper 2pts win @ 4/1 - LOST (SP 11/2)

Bets Placed

Recif De Thaix £200 lay @ 2.0 (net)............192
Bob Mountain £50 e/w on BF....................(100)
Picaroon £100 win @ 9/2.......................(100)
Nearby £100 win @ 13/2........................(100)
Estrica £50 e/w @ 20/1........................(100)
Long Hop £150 win @ 7/2 - 4/1.................(150)
Classic Chic £60 win @ 9/2, £140 on BF........(200)
Genari £200 win @ 6/4.........................(200)
Ceilidh Royal £200 @ Evs - 11/10..............(200)
Albertas Run £200 win @ 9/2...................(200)
Something Wells £200 win on BF................(200)
Picaroon £80 win @ 9/2, £120 on BF............(200)
Tartak £100 win @ 10/1, £100 on BF............(200)
Tidal Bay £100 win @ 11/4.....................(100)
Fourty Acers £200 win @ 5/1...................(200)
Kerada £200 win @ 2/1 - 9/4 (BOG)..............500
Viper £68 @ 4/1, £132 on BF...................(200)
Personal - Maths / PWE / Other................(260)

Loss on day £2018


Anonymous said...

You have my sympathy JP. The last two days have possibly been the worst EVER in my personal betting history, with DEEP PURPLE and ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES doing the most damage for me. The hardest pill to swallow being that I actually LAYED Shambles @ 17, in addition to backing FINE PARCHMENT heavily. I can't remember the last time I lost so much much money in a single sitting! May have to rethink Christmas lunch this year - slice of mutton anyone!? Humble Pie to follow perhaps?

Anonymous said...

Hi JP - I noticed recently that you're placing 'personal' selections from Pricewise and Maths mentions etc. Do you find this is a result of chasing losses or do you generally 'have a go' anyway?

I have been trying desperately NOT to chase losses - just place the bets in the morning and try to forget about it until the evening. No easy thing when you sit in front of a PC all day. As soon as I log in to BF to 'see how it's going' I get hooked and can't help but tinker with the advices given. Usually ends up with even more losses :(

I wonder if when you go full time there will be a tendency to 'keep an eye' on things - a recipe for disaster in my book.

Tiger W1 said...

Tough times at the moment JP. This is a real test of a gambler's nerve when a run like this hits. I guess its bearable because you've had such a great year, but still tough to take.

I wonder why so many tipsters are having a bad time at the moment. Maybe its the freakish weather.

mrh-beats said...

Hey JP,
Really feel for you - it would be nice to finish your year on a high over the next few days. So fingers crossed!

trigster said...

Hi JP,
You may well be losing the final few battles but you've certainly won the war.
Very well done on your achievements and enjoy the well-earned break.

stan said...

Hi JP, after yesterday I have binned Punter profits. I just cannot see them turning it around now, all systems seem to have a shelf life, and I think their portfolio is finished. Losing runs are getting worse, as you said.

JP said...

Hi anon,

Sounds like a nightmare. Hope it starts turning again for you.


Anon #2

Not chasing but just trying to get a bit more out of it. I've been placing extra bets throughout the year from the other bit and pieces of information which come with the tipsters, but don't make it on to the account for some reason.

I've been as guilty as anyone else of chasing losses over the years, but seem to be able to discipline myself better now.

Having said that, increasing the stakes over the last few months on the back of the success I had might be viewed as chasing profits - could well be right !


Hi Tiger,

Just about all of them are struggling at the minute. Don't know if you can put it down to the ground anymore - it's soft or heavy for sure but it's been like that for a few weeks now, and it's supposed to be heavy this time of year !

Best of luck to you, and the blog. I'll link you up on here.


Cheers Malcolm, didn't happen today but see how the weekend goes.

Thanks for your comment as always.


Trigser, cheers for that - a good way of looking at it.

Best of luck to you.


Hi Stan,

As you say, most systems can only go for so long before they are overbet and cease to be profitable, or conditions change which makes them redundant.

Too early to say if that's the case here, but it is concerning that four of their seven biggest losing runs have come together in the last six weeks.

Hopefully for everyone concerned, they'll go on a great run over the next few weeks and get back in to profit.

All the best