Saturday, 20 February 2010

2010 Staking Plan

Well I've been working on the staking plan for this year over the last few days and I'm ready to go with it now.

What I've done is assigned each service a betting bank in terms of points.

I've then applied a weighting to each service to help come up with a stake per point, I have applied a higher weighting to those services which I consider will produce the best results over the rest of this year.

This is highly subjective of course, but the highest rating unsurprisingly has gone to Equine Investments, who have produced outstanding results for a number of years now, not least since last May when I first joined.

I then calculated the bank required in financial terms for each service, and finally applied a leverage factor to work out how much in actual cash I need to have in place for this project.

I've attached my calculations here, which shows that by applying a leverage factor of 2.25 I can operate the portfolio I've set up with a cash betting bank of £40,000.

There are no guarantees of course, but it should be remembered that even during the shocking run at the end of last year, the worst drawdown in cash terms was around £18,000, so given a similar run of results this year then I should be OK.

You'll see that I've got three lines headed "A N Other" - this is to cover additional services or systems that I may add in the next few weeks. I've also assigned £2500 as a bank for personal bets / trades.

Any time I add or drop a service I will re-calculate all the figures and adjust the stakes accordingly.

A couple of things to note -

First I've signed up with Formbet for three months and will get started with them next week.

Second - I will bet the Isiris main account bets win only to level stakes of £150 - this will get round the problem of being unable to place many of the advised each way bets - just got to get the prices now !


As an aside KB has asked me not to name the Isiris account bets on the blog from now on. Don't have an issue with that really, although I'd prefer it the way it was obviously - I will just record the returns under the heading of my personal bets.

Any comments or questions, please let me know.



9 comments:

Jonathan said...

I see you have increased your SLH stakes from £75 per point, which you've been using for the last few days, to £80 per point from now on. Bad luck that he made you lose £320 in his 4-point bet today. I don't like his 4-point bets. I'm tempted to bet with level stakes on his bets from now on. Maybe £100 on win bets and £50 e.w. on his each-way selections like Greg Gordon did in the Observer survey.

Anonymous said...

Why is KB withholding information? I can't think of any justification.

Anonymous said...

Are all the Football Elite bets 10-unit win bets? Do they adise 5-unit win bets or other unit bets? How many do they advise on average per week?

Changing days said...

Looks good JP, very interesting to see your plans.

Are you going to do a Cheltenham "live blog" again this year? It really was brilliant last year.

Cheers

Skeeve said...

Hi JP,

First of all, well done on a fine 2009 and a very interesting blog.

Are you sure you need that big of a bank for FE? I've only been Matt's client since August and we all know how succesful he was in the 1st part of the season so I suppose you had that in mind when you were calculating, but I think 30 points should be more than enough (SBC's advice is 25 points btw) - that's what I started with.

Btw my own portfolio consists of football services only - not just because I have no clue about racing, but because I've been severely limited at most of the traditional bookmakers. I basically use Pinnacle (my favorite bookie), SBO and Bet365 for all the Football Elite, Sports Investor, Intelligent Betting (with much smaller stakes) picks and most of my own non-league picks and, from time to time, Bwin and Ladbrokes for non-league picks that aren't covered by the asian handicap market.

I'm not asking for an advice of course, just wanted to share my frustration with some of the 'big names' (like StanJames, Blue Square, Victor Chandler, not to mention the likes of BetFred and BoyleSports...). What is your experience with Bet365? I also have a feeling everyone has a different story about them - I can't say a bad word for example, they even let me take my 200-300euros nonleague bets there.

all the best,
skeeve

Edgehunters said...

Hi JP

when you had the £18000 drawdown last year did you ever have any doubts about your strategy and staking.

Also you say that Equine Investments have been consistly profitable over a number of years. Obviously you will pick the bookmaker or exchange with the highest odds but do you find you have trouble getting the bigger bets on with some of the bookmakers because of your successful track record.

finally would you consider adding my blog to your blogroll. I have already added your blog to mine.

http://edgehunters.net

Keep up the good work.
Good luck
Mark

Anonymous said...

Hi JP

Good to see you back (we used to chat on TFA forum I was was timmsy on there)

Very interesting staking plan

What made you include Isisris? were you with them before?

I ask as I see varying opinions one the service in the past and can find little info now

JP said...

Hi Jonathan,

He doesn't have that many 4 point bets, so to have two in the same week is quite unusual.

Looking at my records for last year, he had about 10 and most of them got beaten.

Of course you don't have to follow the advised plan - just work out a plan you're happy with yourself and see how it goes.

*

Hi anon,

Well I know when "Dirk Diggler" used to have a blog, he didn't want him posting the results then.

I asked him last year if he had any problems with it, and he said no but he's changed his mind.

*

All Football Elite bets are 10 point bets. There's usually 4-5 bets each weekend and the occasional bet in midweek.

*

Hi CD,

Yes, I'm planning to do the same for Cheltenham again this year - hopefully with a bit more success !


*

Hi Skeeve,

Good to hear from you.

You're probably right that a 50 point bank for Matt's service is on the high side - but I've tried to be conservative in my forecast.

Should bear in mind though, that by applying leverage I am effectively operating a 90K betting bank with 40K in cash, so that's where the risk comes in.

Regarding the bookmakers, as I mentioned the other day I'm so severely restricted in terms of what I can get on with the horses that I'm now using accounts opened by family / friends on my behalf to place my bets.

Don't have any real issues with getting my football bets on, as you say firms like Pinnacle are excellent.

Unfortunately with most of the bookmakers these days, if you win, or look like you know what you're doing, or try and get the best price, or the best terms then they don't want to know and they'll either shut your account, or reduce your stakes to such an extent that it's not worth bothering with.

Bet365 did play the game with me, and took decent bets off me for a good while last year - even when I was winning. But then one day, they just slapped the restriction on my account (without any communication by the way) so no bet could win more than £30 and that was that.

Don't see things changing anytime soon so it's just something that has to be got round as best I can.

Best of luck to you.

*

Hi Mark,

I've mentioned since I came back, that one of the reasons for revising the staking plan this year was that the stakes and layout were getting too much, and I was starting to feel uncomfortable and stressed by it.

The new plan feels much more manageable, and should do the job - assuming a similar set of results to last year.

I've touched on getting on with Skeeve above. I try and use Betfair these days whenever I can, but with the EI bets that's just not possible as the liquidity isn't there - and what is available is taken within seconds of the bets being given out.

Just try and do the best I can with it.

I'll link you up on here.

Best of luck to you.

*

Hi mate,

Good to hear from you. I've been with Isiris since I started doing this back in 2007, and I've used them prior to that as well.

Biggest issue, as ever, is getting the bets on at the right price. I've made the decision this year to follow the main account bets win only - as it's very hard to get the bets on each way, and long term backing them win only is actually more profitable.

All the best
JP

Anonymous said...

hi jp just a quick mention of a tipping site that will almost guarentee a profit over the year worth a look at the results on the website updated daily on vsrcm .com