Monday, 15 March 2010

Christmas Eve

Well it's like that isn't it - and I know what I want for Christmas this year !

Anyway, the current bad run continued on Monday with just one short priced winner and a successful lay from SLH.

Punter Profits had 4 bets, a 5/4 winner and three odds-on losers. Think the time has come to ditch these short priced bets - I saw a report from the SBC last year which showed the systems had little or no edge at less than 2/1. It's pretty soul destroying backing losers at such short prices and so I'll make this change immediately - no bet if 2/1 or less.

Three losers from The Form Guru - including a second and a third, but Chris says confidence is "very high" for the week - hope he's right.

As expected there was nothing from the golf this weekend, so I'll add those losses to today's figures and no joy from a few other small bets I had today.

I'll be up early (for me) tomorrow, and I'll put a couple of messages on here in the morning before getting down to the serious business from about 1pm. Try and look in if you can. Best of luck !!!


Monday 15 March

Portfolio Results (below)................(470)
Personal Bets / Trades....................(99)

Loss on day £569



9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi, will be definetly checking in when i can. Really looking forward to the racing. Best of luck for the festival, hope you get some of those winners!

Ben.

SimpleBet said...

Good luck for the next 4 days in particular JP.

Think its a good idea to give the short priced ones a miss, especially with the going changing so much of late.

We never tip at odds on because we think people can pick those themselves. Its also a bit galling to be given something at 4/6 and it not winning from a subscribers view.

Guess its all about value though but value with odds on chances to us would be on decent ground in June!

Wishing you a good rest of the week.
SimpleBet

Anonymous said...

Best of luck for the week JP. I'm sure it will be a rollercoaster. I have the week off to watch it in the pub and I will be checking your blog on my phone

Tim

Mick said...

Good luck over the next few days JP. I know in the long term luck plays no major part in the game we play but that's no reason to pass up on some in the short term to help us out every now and then.

I've got one, maybe two bets for Cheltenham at the moment which means my festival isn't going to be anywhere as stressful as yours. I honestly don't envy you!

mickk said...

Hi jp it can be soul destroying to back odds on losers,and i just cannot bring myself to bet at odds on.
For many years i would not go below 9/4 but in recent seasons have allowed ev - 2/1 and although this has lowered my ROI it has for me been the right decision because it has reduced the runs of consecutive losers which can eat away at your confidence.

Changing days said...

Really good luck for the next few days JP. Can't believe how bad most of the services are running for you at the moment. Let's hope it'll all change in dramatic fashion starting at 1330 tomorrow afternoon.

Will be watching the live updates with interest!!

Sports Punter said...

Good Luck JP. I reckon you get it all back and more over the next 4 days.

If you want to look at a Free Preview to give you some lays have a look at:

http://testpunt.ning.com/

I know what you mean about Christmas Eve, I can't wait.......

Anonymous said...

Hi JP, we run BetCatalyst (we like yourselves have had a bad week) but are looking to have a cracking Cheltenham. If you're ever looking for a new service by all means check us out. These are our bets for today (please don't post until after they've run):


FIULIN 1.30 Cheltenham has already been advised as an antepost bet, but with a few firms now going 200-1 (advised at 150-1) we need to step in to top up. Rated 100+ on the flat this horse has oodles of natural talent and more importantly has won first time out on the flat for the past two seasons - both in early April. This fact suggests heavily that he's in peak form at this time of year and that he run well fresh. Another big factor that needs to be taken onboard is that the stable had three winners on Monday. But all these facts aside, the impression he created on his first run over hurdles over 2m4f at Cheltenham on soft ground back in January when absolutely cantering coming down the hill before the turn in to the straight was one of a potentially great hurdler. He jumped with fluency, which puts inexperience wories to rest. It was quite clear that he was to be looked after that day - he was allowed to come home in his own time when it was clear he couldn't win. The soft ground over that trip was too big a burden on his stamina, a fast run 2m on this ground should be ideal. Just get the impression that if this were a flat race he'd be a very short price given all the flat marks on show. Available at 200-1 outright, he's also available at 80-1 w/o Dunguib.

BENSALEM 2.40 Cheltenham has to be the e/w bet of the meeting. Aside the fact that the stable is going well, his Cheltenham record reads 1-2, while his record on ground with good in the title reads 1-1-1-2. The big key to all this is the impression that he would have beaten Diamond Harry last time had he not hit a fence at the roots and that horse is a 165 rated hurdler. Now I know you cannot begin to equate the proximity of hurdle marks to chase marks, but off 143 Bensalem has this race to lose. We reckon he's definitely a 155+ horse and as such we're confident he'll run a huge race. The stable won this with a similar type in Fork Lightening not too long ago, while Bensalem has to be one of the most lightly raced horses hence open to huge amounts of improvment.

We're on the right side of the Champion Hurdle market with Starluck @ 25-1 and Medermit @ 14-1, while we've also got Osana at a good price.

Suggested Bet:

£30 e/w Fiulin 1.30 Cheltenham @ 200-1 Ladbrokes and Betfred

£50 e/w Bensalem 2.40 Cheltenham @ 11-2 Paddy Power

£20 e/w double on above two @ 200-1 and 5-1 @ Ladbrokes

JP said...

Cheers guys, hope we all have a great week !