Friday, 12 March 2010

Testing Times

Friday 12 March

I've now been back exactly 4 weeks, and clearly the first month hasn't gone as I might have hoped it would.

Mentioned the other day that this time last year on the horses I'd struggled and it was only the golf winnings that were keeping things ticking over. Just had a look back to 2008 and it was the same story - I finally got the year in profit during the Cheltenham Festival.

Have to keep a positive attitude - easier said than done at times - and believe that things will take a turn for the better before too much longer.

Another tough day today with just one short priced winner courtesy of Punter Profits, and a second place for Tipping Legends in the same race.

The Form Guru is having the worst run since I joined last May and has now dropped over 100 points over the last 4 weeks.

SLH had one bet on his mainline - Doctor Foxtrot (also put up by TFG) but despite travelling well enough through the race, he came under pressure turning out of the back straight and eventually finished second last.

Said I only had one winner today - not quite true as the SLH lay King Brex won as well. Still at least I didn't lay it at 1000 like someone on Betfair did !

No doubt a busy day in store tomorrow, and of course the Cheltenham Festival is within touching distance now.

Just a quick heads-up that I'm intending doing a live blog again this year, starting on Tuesday morning. It was well received last year, and I really enjoyed doing it despite the way things turned out.

Friday 12 March

Portfolio Results (below)....................(459)
Personal Bets / Trades.......................(187)

Loss on day £646


John said...

Hi JP, let's hope Football Elite's weekend selections get some profit back for us. I have put them all in as £50 win singles plus a £10 four-fold worth £280 so fingers crossed! Just wondering if you had a view on SLH this past year - I have to say since last Easter he has been very poor and I'm thinking of ditching him at the end of this month unless he manages something special at Cheltenham although I remember last year he barely got involved. 'Nothing strong enough for the account'; 'really trappy handicaps'; 'plenty in with chances'... I wish he'd cut the cliched waffle and provide some decent, profitable tips before he loses his fan base! Best of luck for the weekend.

Edgehunters said...


As a relatively inexperianced sports investor I have a question about how you deal with losing runs.

When you are in the mist of a long losing run does the urge to stake more aggresively (chase) ever rear its ugly head or have you never been a victim to those kinds of thoughts.

from reading your posts you use your past data to remain positive and I think that for inexperianced sports investors like myself that is a very useful lesson to keep very accurate records.

I am very much looking forward to your live blog.


JP said...

Hi John,

Another poor day on the horses, but just have to keep battling away with it.

Regarding SLH, last year he made 100 points between Cheltenham and the middle of June.

Since then though, there's been nothing and he's down over the last 9 months.

You have to make your own decisions about which way to go when you're following tipsters, but he's made me a lot of money over the last couple of years - and I'm sure he'll come good again.

Should also mention that I made nothing from following up for the first six months when I first started doing this, but he suddenly started running hot and as I said I've done very well.

Have to think long term in this game, but your opinions can only be influenced by the results you experience for yourself.

As for the number of tips he gives out, then I've always been happy with that. I have other services who give out many more each week than he does, and that's OK for me as well.

Right now though, I just want a couple of them to step up to the mark and get things up and running for me this year.

Best of luck to you.


Hi Mark,

Interesting question because this current losing run is pretty dismal - especially as it follows on from the bad one at the end of last year.

I don't chase my losses now, but it was something I was certainly guilty of when I was younger - and it got me into trouble at one point.

Thankfully I seem to have that particular problem under control now.

If you believe in what you're doing, then you just have to keep going and wait for things to turn.

I don't advocate reducing stakes during a bad run (my new staking plan for this year was more to do with cutting down my exposure, and I view this year as a new start anyway).

Saying all that, following the advice of others is not easy especially when it's going as badly as it is just now.

I do feel that I need to do something for myself - whether it's purely trading or backing or laying a few I've picked out myelf.

When it gets like this, it does feel like you've no control over things, and that's not a good feeling to have - especially when I haven't got any other income !