Tuesday, 20 April 2010

More of the same

Thanks for the many comments left in response to my post last night - they are much appreciated and I'll get around to replying to them tomorrow.

In the meantime, just time to bring the results up to date and it continues to be hard going with two more losing days and £700 more to add to the losses.

Only winners on Monday were a short priced Isiris insider bet and a treble from BLSC, and there was nothing at all for me on Tuesday.

Things can only get better !



Monday 19 April

Portfolio Results (below).............(184)
Personal Bets / Trades..................57

Loss on day £127






Tuesday 20 April

Portfolio Results (below).............(288)
Personal Bets / Trades................(289)

Loss on day £577

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

I really think Steve Lewis Hamilton needs to consider moving with the times and introducing a text or e-mail service to replace his telephone service. I find ringing every day at 1pm a real bind and very annoying, especially when I am at work or out for lunch with friends. A simple text could be dealt with simply on my mobile and I could proceed to place a bet through my handset or on my computer. Faffing about with calls at 12.57pm through to 1.03pm is really annoying me. I think Steve's watch needs re-synchronising! The review message should be sent as an e-mail and should include the P/L figure for the week and the P/L figure for the month and year. In the same vein as Matt from FE does. This way it would be easier to keep up to date with this year's profit (or loss as is the case at the moment). The SLH website is a shocking example of result-massaging and shows a total lack of transparency. And Rob Lewis Hamilton (in the so-called Racing Office) is very obtuse and unwilling to provide P/L figures or ROI figures for the year. I don't understand why a so-called reputable betting service cannot be totally transparent and, to go back to my first comment, move with the time and use texts/e-mails to relay bets to clients rather than all this messing about with phone calls. I certainly hope Steve or his brother read this blog and realise that there are better ways of running their service. They should certainly take a leaf out of Football Elite's book.

Anonymous said...

JB says,
not sure if this has got lost in other posts but something for you to look at is spreadbetting on total corners
ignore if you wish
http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/total-corner-spreads-holy-grail-277-bets-24-yield-80745/index49.html

Anonymous said...

Hi JP, check out OLBG mate. Plenty of good tipsters on there, all free. You can track tipsters, check past records etc, all free. Simon

Anonymous said...

I'd agree with many of the comments regarding SLH. I'd also agree with the points re the excellent standard set by Football Elite.

Another point mentioned in the blog is how few e/w doubles have been made this year. By my claculations there were 17 e/ws advised last year. I made nearly 50 points profit on the 8 winners including winners at 10, 14 and 25 to 1. This year they have been few and far between. Even more annoyingly there have been instances where e/ws have been mentioned in the preview messages and discarded for various reasons. A case in point was on 21st January where Deep Pockets and another horse at Taunton who I didn't record the name were mentioned as consideration for an e/w double but were discarded as people were not able to get on. I backed Deep Pockets as a single and also the e/w double it and both it and the other horse both won. The double paid out at nearly 14/1!!

I'm a subscriber of both the private line and the exchange since early 2009 and with my subs up end of April I'm seriously considering will I renew again. I probably will but if I don't see an improvement for my next subs I will be going elsewhere

Anonymous said...

Despite not being a fan of tipsters I always found your blog an interesting and honest read and sorry to see your struggling a bit.

I think you should take a lot of encouragement from how your personal bets are doing. I reckon these are much more important long term than the tipster bets.

Having said I'm not keen on tipsters, I think you've done a good job of picking genuine ones. But personally I think you should have a strict rule on getting the best morning price, it could mean you get alot less bets on but that would probably be a good criteria to drop a service. It's worth remembering making money gambling begins and ends with the price - don't underestimate the massive effect of taking a shorter price - taking 16's on that advised 20/1 shot won't work unless the tipsters has an edge of at least 23%. An overall edge of 10% would be pretty good going.

Anyway Good Luck, Nick.

Anonymous said...

I have done some analysis on SLH's bets since January 2009, when I joined the service. It is clear that level stake betting is more profitable. I have been betting using Steve's advised points system at £50 per point but when I run the bets through at level stakes (£100 win only or £50 each way) the ROI is much better. About a 5% increase in fact. I think the fact that his 3 and 4 unit bets are so poor in terms of strike rate means that I would have wasted less money on losing bets. Going back to an earlier comment, I whole-heartedly agree with the idea with SLH sending out bets by text or e-mail. We are in the 21st century now plus it will make my phone bills cheaper not having to call 0871 numbers every day! The subscription fee is high enough without additional phone costs...

Anonymous said...

Hi... regularish reader of your blog and a full time punter for 6 years now.

You will have your own view on the services you use.. I subscribe to 3 long standing successful services and have tried far too many in the journey to arriving at them

One possible piece of advice from a psychologial viewpoint given your current predicament (and the fact you are placing bets from tipping services) .... watch less races!!

Your work is done by the time the race starts ... you are not an in running player (to my knowledge) and most if not all of your future bets are predetermined by other people.

When it isnt going well..the mind picks up all the negative signals / events and magnifies them manyfold ... every unlucky race is another nail.

Try as much as you can to step back from action and be as clinical as possible

Best of luck to you.. Im sure you can turn it around

Anonymous said...

I dont think it should be any mystery why a longterm losrer avoids 'transparency'. Its more of a mystery why people take his advice imo.

bog darking.......... said...

Good Evening JP, thanks and well done for maintaining the blog. Probably a pleasure when your winning but a chore when you are chasing the £'s, so its appreciated this end that you still take the time to update, always a good read.

As ever, to keep you on your toes, a couple of points purely as food for thought from my own musings.

1 The first few weeks/months of the racing year were very similar if not worse to last year in the sense that the weather took hold and numerous meetings were lost. Not only have betting opportunities been reduced by the loss but also the form/stats etc have been affected by the lack of having daily meetings. Additionally the ground having been sodden for weeks then seemed to change within a week to firm up and need watering, again not a basis for consistency. Then followed the Festival, which saw few favs/fancied ones winning and a start to the Flat season that was merely a trickle after the Lincoln, to finally springing into some life at the Craven meeting, only just passed.
In summary the point is the worse third of the season, in many ways has gone, the following two thirds with ample opportunities is ahead.

2 I have once in the past 'spoke' to you on here about prices, as in there must be a lower limit that it is just not viable to get involved in. Only you know the services inside out and would be able to make such judgement. I think from memory we agreed there is a line but where is always the tricky one. Anyways on a similar vein, and again you are the judge on this but its is my belief that some services offer advices daily because that is the service. Every day I have fancies, notes, markers, etc BUT, I dont have a bet daily and that is the difference. In all honesty there is not a bet EVERYDAY, but some services just cant leave a blank, however those blanks over a period add up and in some cases are the difference between profit and loss.

3 and final point.

You are taking 'drastic' action to get back on track but it is important that the changes are positive. Its no good replacing a poor service with a ........ poor service. To this end I would be interested in how you approach such to be confident that ongoing you will be right.

I ask this question using Fryboy as an example. A new service, not a year old built off the back of a forum cult following. Bearing in mind the said forum is one of the most fickle out there.
So not a year old, so no proper, long term history, a site that freely admits it changed its approach on transition from forum to www and the main man is quoted as saying 'Betting and Gambling leaves him cold' .

Additionally the service joined Racing Index initially, proofing daily, but then left when showing a minus, It shows its own +/- to recommended prices not SP (are they actually achievable?) and even at own prices is showing a loss over the last 6 months (nov-apr). Thats without including any subs. Doesnt overly grab me.

I would imagine a service once board you can gets to grips with and fully understand and hence some have been dropped, but I would be interested in your criteria in picking new ones. Perhaps in hindsight, were the ones being dropped recently actually right FOR YOU from the start, and what can be learnt from the whole process.

Anyways thats enough 'food for thought' and I look forward to reading about an upturn in the profits soon, as point one above refers, I am sure the time of year is now going to have a positive effect.

All the best for the rest of the year JP

JP said...

Hi anon #1,

Great post - can't add to that !

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Hi JB - picked that up on other thread.

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Thanks Simon, I am signed up there but have never paid it much attention to be honest.

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Anon #2,

Wasn't around in January but I'm guessing the bet revolved around betting e/w against an odds on favourite.

I can't get bets on in those circumstances, so wouldn't criticise him for not putting htat particular one up - but good luck to you if you can manage it.

However there were plenty he gave last year which weren't like that and it seems very strange he can't find them this year when they contributed such a large amount to last years profit.

As I said, would much prefer these to most of the short priced selections given out this year.

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Hi Nick,

Thanks for your comment.

While this approach doesn't suit everyone, I think I've shown what can be done over the last couple of years.

Should point out that some of the Personal bets profits is actually from the tips of Isiris, who have asked me not to post their results on the blog.

I think by dropping TFG, I've reduced the problem of getting prices by something like 75% to be honest. I've always tried to get the best I can - which has become more and more difficult with the bookies restrictions on me.

Getting good prices on the EI selections will be crucial over the next few months, as he has a massive edge. I did very well last year, and achieved very close to the profit which was claimed to advised prices.

If I do miss one, I'll usually leave it alone.

Had to take under a few while at Aintree the other week as I only had access to Betfair prices.

Cheers

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Hi anon #3,

Covered your points elsewhere, and I think pretty much everyone is in agreement with you.

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Anon #4,

Thanks very much for your comment.

Interesting to hear from someone who has made a proper go of it.

I agree that I need to get away from watching the tips run - as you say I can't influence the outcome from here so what's the point !

Hope things are going well for you.

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Anon #5,

Can only comment on the experiences I've had over the last couple of years which is big profits.

Whether the results of the last few months are the way it's going to be from now on remains to be seen.

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JP said...

Hi Bog,

Good to hear from you and thanks for your thoughts again.

Fair point you make about the impact the weather has on things - it can't be any coincidence that I have struggled to make progress in the early part of the year for each of the last three years.

Regarding your second point, all the services I've followed over the last couple of years have different ways of playing the game - from 2-3 bets a week to half a dozen or more bets per day.

It suits me to have a lot of action every day, and for most of the last couple of years it has worked well. If I choose to go down the route of following tipsters, then I have to trust them to get it right.

I think the two services I've dropped this week will reduce the overall amount of bets I have by over 50%. Whether I look to replace that with others, or with my own trades remains to be seen, but I think we'll have to disagree on this one.

As far as choosing new services, I agree it's no good swapping one bad one for another.

You can look at as many historic results as you like, it's the only information you really have, but the only way to get a feel for things is to try them out.

As you know I'm trying out several different ones for a few weeks, of which Fryboy is one, to see if I can get a decent "fit" for my portfolio, whether I can get the bets on, achieve the prices etc and I'm open minded as to which if any I will go with.

I've made some pretty good decisions over the last couple of years I think, whether choosing to join or to leave, and hopefully I'll get it right this time around.

No regrets about the two most recent departures, haven't worked out as well as I would have wanted but that's how it goes.

Thanks for your comment mate, and best of luck to you.