Friday, 30 April 2010

Over and out !

Well it was just ten days ago that I wrote a long post about "The Way Forward" for the rest of this year. Perhaps I was trying to talk myself into feeling better about things, but whatever it was, it didn't help and I've now reached a crossroads and I need to decide what I'm going to do.

It is clear to me now that the path I'm following at the moment is the wrong one - regardless of what happened in the last couple of years, I've got no confidence at all that this is going to turn round anytime soon, and it's just pointless thinking otherwise.

I've got no money coming in, the amount of cash I've got through over the last six months would give most people sleepless nights, and with every passing week the situation is getting worse.

I need to take some time out to have a think about things and try and work out the best way forward from here. I honestly don't know the answer to that at the moment !

Just about the only thing I have decided is that this is going to be my last blog post.

I've been writing here for two and a half years - over 800 posts, numerous comments in response, and over 350,000 visitors - I've been amazed by how many people look in every night to read my ramblings, and I'm very grateful for all the feedback I have received.

When I started out I never imagined I'd still be writing it after all this time, and it has been an integral part of what I've been doing over the last couple of years.

Thanks again for all the feedback - whether it's been ideas, encouragement, criticism, congratulations, abuse, or whatever else, it's been great to hear from you all.

To all those who are trying to make this game pay, I wish you all the luck in the world. I managed it for two years, and I hope I can find a way back to profitability before my bankroll runs out !

Be lucky !!!


Changing days said...

Oh JP that is such a huge shame, this blog will be hugely hugely missed.

Naturally if you think it's the right way to go personally you have to do it, and of course it's your prerogative, but I do hope you have a change of heart in the coming days/weeks.

All the best with the coming weeks. A change in fortune is surely just around the corner.

Best regards,

Anonymous said...

Bloody hell JP, I presume this is one the back of another losing day. If so no wonder you are feeling at the end of the road. I hope you rethink your decision to post, because your blog has been an inspiration to many. By all means take some time out and look again at your portfolio. But you did make it pay for some time as well, and there's no reason you can't again. Once you start again play smaller stakes and a smaller portfolio, making £100 a day is £3000 a month, which tax free is a decent wage by anyone's standards. Whatever you decide I wish you good luck.

Bradders said...

Hey JP,

Sometimes a breather from the normal can be the best option, although the blog at the minute doesn't seem to be bringing in the results you want i am confident it not only can,but will turn around.

You made a confident banking plan, with the right amount of bankroll carefully calculated by yourself. Its so easy for a watcher to give you advice, but i think the best piece of advice anyone can give you would be to trust your own judgement/instinct as your the most experienced in this area.

The cold snap has obviously dented your results, your tipsters confidence and yours also but now we are reaching the more stable period of the year for tipsters to perform, would keeping this on for another 2 weeks be out of the question?

I fully understand that TL and TFG have been under par, but its always about long term profit, sometimes very long especially with very active tipsters. The longer the drought goes on, the heavier it will poor when the goods come in, you just need to hang on and the deficit you have incurred could take a massive positive swing in literally a few days.

Maybe have a think about what the cause was of your best days, and try and leave those doors open, i was always a believer that TL and TFG (apart from SLH) were your bread and butter tipsters.

Equine will be in soon, you know they're profitable. I may come across as being negative from my next statement and i do apologise in advance if i am, but why not revert back to having employment aswell as following your tipsters.

One thing for sure is that this will relieve alot of pressure off your shoulders, pressure you dont deserve, once the confidence and form is restored then you can have another review about what your desires are to achieve with this blog.

I read your blog every single day, i enjoyed reading you nailing the incredible £5,000 treble and your detailed analysis is something i've always admired and i know i'm not the only one.

Make a desicion that you wont regret, thats what always runs through my mind when i'm stuck. I truly hope that whatever the future holds it is great and one day you'll refer back to your most recent posts and smile knowing that everything was not going to be ok, but better than you could have ever thought.

Best of luck mate

Peter Brady

Rayner said...

Thank you Jp for the effort you've put into this blog and I sincerley wish you the best of luck for the future. This game is tricky and I hope that others will see that following tipsters over the long term is a futile way to gain profit. The only way to make this game pay is by having a rigid system/stratergy that is unique to yourself and to keep it away from the masses in order to secure value.

Anonymous said...

Some people wonder why i don't bet in April! Keep your chin up....EI

Cassini said...

JP - I'm one, well several actually, of the 350,000 and I for one, will miss your blog and your comments. Although you are, were, mainly a P&L blog, the times when you posted your thoughts were refreshing for their honesty and directness. (I feel like I'm writing an obituary, which I guess, in a way, I am). Anyway, thanks and good luck to you in whatever you decide to do in the future.

Cassini -

Anonymous said...

Sorry to hear JP.
Was a follower on and off. I guess putting your faith in other peoples selections is not easy, especially during a losing run.
Hope things turn out good for you.
Best of luck.
Pj (PackedPockets)

Anonymous said...

end of jumps/start of flat during april never a good month and msot professionals take it easy.

thing might pick up now just a tought good luck with whatever u try.

David said...

always interesting to read your blog
I wish you all the best in the future

Paul said...


I am very sorry you have decided to call it a day. I only hope that this is temporary and that in a few weeks time when your confidence returns you will reconsider and start posting again. You have been an inspiration to me, and I suspect to very many others, and you'll be sadly missed.

Take care,


RichP said...

Shame you're finishing the blog as it's always a fascinating read and one I look forward to. Fully understand though after the recent run. It's a great credit to you that you posted both during the high and low periods. Perhaps you should write a book about your experience following tipsters. Hope you find a solution to the bad run and have a u-turn on the blog. All the best, Rich

Matt (Football Elite) said...

Sorry to see you are calling it a day JP, I always found your blog a good read and tried to catch up with it as often as I could. Was keeping my fingers crossed that you would pull out of this downturn.

If you do decide to carry on down the tipster/gambling road in the future drop me an email and I'll try and help you out a bit with the best route to take. Sometimes can be good to get an outsiders point of view.

All the best and hope this blog is back at some point in the future.


Anonymous said...

Hi JP sorry to hear this is your last post I have really enjoyed the last 18 months,it is a bit like reading a book and getting to the end and finding there is no final chapter to tell you the ending.
But I also appreciate that you have to call it as you see fit, good luck for the future and maybe you can do a final round up when life becomes clearer for you,
good luck

Kilkennycat said...

I've enjoyed reading your blog JP over the last year and a half and will be sad to see it finish. It must be ver disheartening to be on such a losing run but hopefully things will turn around for you sooner rather than later. I wish you all the best JP.

Seán said...

Its sad to hear that the blog is being discontinued, JP, I found it a great read every evening and will sorely miss it. However, I don't feel this will be the last one from you,and wish you the all the best during your break to reassess things, and I look foward to reading the ups & downs again in the near future. I have found over the years that taking such a break can do wonders and hopefully it will achieve likewise results for you.

Anonymous said...

Good luck JP, good decision and I hope the winners roll in and the pressure eases.

All the best from a fellow investor.

Jason said...

Hope things turn your way JP and I wish you all the best in the future.


Jonathan said...

Hi JP, I have to say I was saddened to read your last post. I have been following your blog avidly over the past year or so, as I'm sure have many others. Often it's the last thing I check on my computer before I go to bed at night. In a way, you have been doing a fantastic service to the betting community: not many people spend the time you have done recording all your bets and results as well as providing food for thought in terms of betting services and staking plans. I am sure there are many of us (myself included) who have had a bad time of things so far this year. Indeed, probably all of us are running at some sort of loss (especially when subs and phone bills are taken off) and I understand you want a break from the constant loss-making advice that a lot of the tipsters are giving out at the moment. However, I assume you will be carrying on as usual but just not putting your bets and feelings into the public domain. Will you still update this blog now and again - maybe just a weekly round-up? It would be great to see things turn around and for you to start making a profit again soon. My feelings in terms of the way you should proceed from here are as follows:

1) You must reduce the number of services you follow - I would say that 3 or 4 services are enough.

2) By reducing the services you can increase stakes on the ones you keep but the overall outlay will probably be the same. More inmportantly, you will win more when you have a good day.

3) Through following advice of high-profile tipsters over the past 3 years you are surely in a better position to make some selections yourself, using the same logic they use. Trust your own judgment as well.

Going back to my point about services to follow, I don't think you can go wrong by keeping Equine Investments and Football Elite as the two stand-out services. I would also keep SLH as I think the tide must turn on his luck soon. If you add another then I would would recommend Pricewise Extra - they are having a fantastic year and deserve some more of your attention.

I wish you luck with it all. I hope things change soon in terms of your ROI and that you don't get wiped out because you don't deserve it. Even though I've never met you, you seem a lovely guy and it is clear you put a lot of dedication and care goes into what you are doing. Best wishes for the future!

RB said...


It's understandable to lose confidence in the way you play at the moment, the downside is always hard to handle. The current performance by most tipsters you use is far below what is manageable.

The past couple of years have probably given you a perfect view on how betting and trading works. I'm sure that you'll find an edge for yourself and hit back hard when you feel the time is right.

All the best!!


mickk said...

Hi jp i understand your reasoning concerning this blog,but your integrity has ensured that you have acquired a really nice bunch of followers and even if you take a break from putting your money at risk,i would respectfully ask you to consider keeping the blog going.
You have created your own little racing forum,followed by some decent and knowledgeable people,and it would be such a shame to let that go to waste.

Whatever your decision i wish you all the very best for the future.

Anonymous said...

You must scrap all of your services except FE, EI and SLH.

What happened on Friday? We need to know. Your post on Thursday was quite upbeat!

Anonymous said...

Sorry things are not going well at the moment. I have really enjoyed reading your blog. Its a tough old game...maybe some time away will allow you to review things and come back stronger with fewer services. EI would certainly need to be the core.
Very best wishes for the future and thank you for an interesting and informative read each day.

Marc Owen Banks said...

Bloody Hell,

This is one visit less i will be making on my daily trawl of the net.

Very sad to see i wont be able to check in every day, but totally understand your decision.

The first quarter of 2010 has been a tough one, although i escaped it, but April has been torturous, and following, i have felt your pain ona daily basis.

The number of hits the blog hass had is testement to your in depth tracking and exciting manner of the ups and downs of betting for a living.

Hopefully the wounds are not too deep and after a break you can regroup your thoughts and get back up and running.

Sorry to see you go JP. RM's disappeared and now you. I'll have to try to find another to follow now

All the best for the future and hoping you dont have to go out and get back in the employment rat race


adrianb said...

Wow, I cannot believe it. Really sad to see your blog go. It was one of the "routine" things I looked at first thing in the morning and will really miss it.

I wish you all the best whatever you end up doing and I am sure it will be a success. To have the patience and diligence to record your bets and write the blog shows you have what it takes. As others have said it is about confidence and the right services/approach but temprement is the hardest attribute(and one I haven't cracked!) and you clealry have that in spades.

Good Luck and be positive. Hope you post again at sometime.


Anonymous said...

Blimey JP just read you are closing down on the betfair forum , i'm shocked but in a way i don't blame you this has probably become part of a routine that was becoming unpleasent and i certainly don't blame you for stopping.

Time out and quiet things down a bit would be a good thing , revealing you bad days on here must have become an unwanted pressure.

Anyhow all the very best and thank you so much for your honesty , i will definatly miss your postings.


Jake said...

JP I've been following your blog for about a year now and have meant to leave comments before especially through this difficult time to tell you how much of an inspiration you have been to me and no doubt your army of followers.

It must be extremely difficult at the moment to see through this bad patch but things will turn. I urge you to reconsider because it's sods law as soon as you stop or take some time out the tide will turn. You have proved you can do this, keep the faith!

My aim is to do what you are doing within the next year or so. I am in no position to give you advice but I'll give you my thoughts anyway!

I think you should try to stay away from watching the racing and try to take a back seat, in a bad run like this watching loss after loss must seriously knock your confidence and maybe affect your decision making skills.

From what I can see the hardest part of what you are doing is knowing when to stop following tipsters. I am aiming to set in stop losses into my portfolio, so I don't have to make the decision, as soon as the stop loss is reached, bang, the tipster is gone. Maybe it's something you could consider using.

Anyway whatever you decide to do, take care, it has been an absolute joy reading your blog, I really hope you reconsider

All the best


steuarthedington said...

Oh JP! :( What everybody else has said +1. The calls to cut most of the services I would certainly agree with, but to expect EI to make everything just dandy again with immediate effect (although it does happen!) is a little unrealistic and puts rather a lot of pressure on them to rise to expectations. These hard times are actually a gift, because at times like this we realise just how careful we need to be every single day, whether using advice or not. I have been with my beloved EI years now I think! My slaaping into sensibility came when I managed to get a decent bank together and at least trebled by staking with EI...very sensible...normally! But this exactly coincided with the worst losing run I have ever seen from them (this is 5 years ago now)and me and my burnt fingers learned a tough lesson. I have had tentative experiments, most recently with TFG, which sadly made EI's losing run mentioned above pretty mild in comparison! So far I have always found other services failing miserably in comparison, and as a result am less and less interested in alternatives. The losing run was a gift to EI too: they tightened up in their staking, the type of horse selected, the number of bets given out. Astoundingly,that year was for some time (and maybe still) their most profitable year ever. Since then they have had superb profits, year after year after year. So, what I am trying to say to you here is: out of the very bad can come the very good. Nobody has to tell you to 'be careful' from now on, but I think I would caution to please not expect too much from EI just yet and keep staking sensible. With this one discipline I have made a lot of money from their advice over many years.
You are a great guy and a brave guy and if you really do halt this blog forever we will miss you very much.

Take it easy, with all this good feeling going towards you there will surely be an upturn for you.



Sorry to see you go JP, checking your blog is part of my daily routine and I have shared some of the good and the bad and ugly times with you over the past 18 months.

Hope you will make a comeback sooner rather than later, I wish you luck and a profitable future.

'Playing it safe'

Anonymous said...

JP, as you can clearly see you have been an inspiration to many people with your daily detailed posting of your betting activities, interspersed with a frank and honest commentary of your feelings of attempting to be a professional gambler. I for one have added your blog to my favourites list for quite some time now.
I guess I just want to say a big thank you to you for everything you've done, and, yes you've guessed it, truly hope that you will reconsider your decision to end this blog. Being a semi-professional gambler myself I know how tough these long, losing run can be, but I do think you have spread yourself out too thin with regards to the number of tipping services you use. It's great when they all do well, but as you can see right now when they all go through a rough patch it can feel extremely disheartening.
Other posters have suggested the services that you should concentrate on and presevere with, and I tend to agree with them. That's the method I use anyway(having a very selective set of tipsters)..and this has served me extremely well so far.
I have mentioned to you before about getting a part-time job, not necessarily for purely financial reasons, but it also gives you something else to focus on when you go through a tough time with your betting like now.
All in all I think you need to take a step back and look at everything, think of the bigger picture and, above all, "feel" confident that things WILL turn around. If they do, then it won't be long before we see the old JP again!
Take care buddy, Johnny W

CJ said...

Hi JP,

Just to echo the comments of many others and let you know what an inspiration you have been to many like myself. My day will definitely be diminished by the disappearance of your blog and being able to follow your ups and downs. I believe you, like many of us, are going through an exceptional spell of unpredictable results and I believe this will improve, although you will have a better feeling than anyone whether this is something you want to continue with. Many thanks for your selfless and honest postings, and the very best of luck in the future for whatever you decide to do.

Anonymous said...

I tried several years to make a second income -£5k a year would have been enough -but despite trying all the big names, I did no better than break even an usually lost after taking into account subs and phone calls. No matter what service I subscribed to which had always made £1m to a £10 stake in the last six months, as soon as I joined the service went into loss.After a big losing day, a friend said "tell me what you backed and why" and my answer was "I paid x to to tell me" . And if you think about it, I was losing money on other peoples say so. I have now accepted that it is really hard to make money through gambling and just treat it as a hobby. Good luck.

Foreverlivingbetting said...

All the best mate hope you will keep us updated with how you're getting on perhaps on a monthly basis.

Anonymous said...

last April (2009) I joined OLBG and it was a complete disaster. However the next 10 months I was showing LSP each month until March/April when it all went pear shaped again. There must be some logical explanation for this but I wont be wasting any time looking for it so in the hope that what happen previously can happen again I will proceed with care for the rest of the year. Good luck whatever you decide but be positive.
Regards P G

Skeeve said...

Hi JP,

Your blog will definitely be missed, I was reading it on a daily basis. You do need to come up with certain adjustments and you don't have to take my advice, but I've noticed you aren't using many 'SBC's Hall of fame' services. In fact, out of twelve services you're currently using, only three of them are in the SBC's HoF (Equine Investments, Football Elite and my own little service). That always seemed a bit off to me as I have nothing but the kindest words for SBC - they definitely seem like they know what they're doing. I haven't got a clue about racing, so I've simply subscribed to football services that are in their HoF (except for Winabobatoo which was closed - a bit of luck for me there). Football Elite, as you know, had an amazing season and you should probably modify your stakes for Matt's bets next season (I know I will). I use a bank of 25 points for Football Elite. Sports Investor had another profitable season as well - it did take some time for me to find the right stake (they announced the average stake this season will be somewehere around one point, but at this moment, their average stake this season is actually 0.53 - there was one one-point bet and half a dozen of 0.75-point bets, all the remaining bets were half-point bets). I'll simply stake one point (flat) on each bet next season (with a bank of 20 or 25 points max). My own little service had another profitable season as well - I'll be at around +50 points in mid-May and although the ROI for the season is a bit dissapointing (three horror Saturdays in April, as you know), at least it's not far from 10% (and I always learn something from a losing run). I've made a mistake by not adjusting the betting bank at the beginning of the season btw, when I decided to drop the Blue Square North (which left only two leagues, Blue Square Premier and South - I've only staked 652 points this season, that's much less than 1051 in 08/09 or 1114 in 07/08). With an advised bank of 100 points, this season's results produce a 50% ROC which isn't bad at all, but it would've been even better with a bank of, let's say 80 points. I'll be advising a smaller bank (most probably 80 points) for next season and I also think you should stake a bit more than 25 pounds per point. I had no problems with 50 and 60-euros-per-point bets this season and (thank god for the asian bookmakers), with let's say 50 euros per point, you'll only need 4000 euros in the bank. Sorry if I'm boring you, I'm just trying to help.

Btw I've also tried AH-betting and Intelligent Betting this season - I didn't really like AH-betting (and all the controversies didn't help either), but I could give another chance to Intelligent Betting (didn't make much with them since January 23, but at least I've covered the subscription costs). I'll also most probably try out the Football Investor and Scottish Football Bets with smaller stakes this season, but the HoF services are the core ones. Like I said, I haven't got a clue about racing, so that leaves Football Elite, Sports Investor and my own little service (I'll keep my eye on adjustments at Winabobatoo as well).

There's plenty of other advices I could give you (for example, I use the bad runs of HoF services to modify my stakes - not by making them smaller of course), but unfortunately I don't have enough time. I'm sure you can get back to the winning ways though, you're obviously a smart guy.

good luck,

NoseAhead said...

Hi JP,
Have been away for some time and real sorry to return and read your considering discontinuing the Blog, and even more sorry to read of your financial situation.

I know last year you expressed wanting more services in your portfolio, and for what my twopennerworth is worth there were too many with you following up to 20 services.
I feel your liabilities were spreading too far to recoup the increasing losses (not including your subscription costs) in the short term, and long term could be financial suicide without any immediate profitable returns.

I know you have the personal strength to come through victorious, but should you decide to call it a day with the blog, I wish to take this opportunity to wish you the best in finding a solution and sincerely hope you come to the right conclusion for the way forward...

Bets of Luck

Anonymous said...

JP as one of your 350,000 i felt the pain , everyones of us has been through it at some stage of our life betting and gambling. I hope you havent lost too much and you can recover from this set back.
This blog was more about you and your character to see how you would change things.

Tiger W1 said...

Hi JP,

gutted to hear the blog will be no more! Really enjoyed reading it, but I understand the need to take a break and think about things. The last six months have been a nightmare, and it does test the patience when you're backing someone else's tips.

Just remember though, you made over 50k over 2008/9 and it can happen again. We've just had the worst winter on record and I am sure it affected performance. April is also a notoriously difficult time to make money.

Have a break, take your time, maybe reduce the portfolio and develop your own bets further, that would be my advice.

All the best for the future, whatever you decide.

SnipeR said...

Stay positive mate, keep your faith and stay true to what you belive in , in will turn around, check my blog i dumped £15k that i borrowed from the mrs at cheltenham , i was mortified, then devised a laying system called PAS , this now generating upto £1200 a wek from a £25-£75 staking plan, and im in the process of spinning £100 to £250k in 365 can be done and your luck will change...kep going with the blog , its great.

WWAH said...

Good luck JP

Anonymous said...

JP I dont know where to begin but I have been an avid reader of your blog for a while , I have followed ever up and every down and felt for you when things werent going right. This might sound a bit crass or sicnical ive always known that you would fail not because or who or what you are but because you cannot win at a sport that is that corrupt.Racing is rancid from top to bottom and yet many of us think they can make it pay but in the end its only loaned to us and somebody whether it be a bookmaker or on betfair will have the lot back off of you.
I still cannot believe there are some of the comments on here about reloading and trying again.
Guys JP hurting and lost more than what he has actually printed (would somebody give me evens on that?) JP needs to sort his life out in a good way and see which direction he is going to take.
Anyway good luck in the future no matter what you do.

Anonymous said...

that last comment was just moronic - i am making about 4k a month from racing and it aint that hard. jp made the mistake of overstaking and too many services - pick one or two good uns and stick with them or do your own thing best way.

Anonymous said...

Jp the last post was just the kind of reaction I expected ie childish put downs. What gets me is the point he makes "in it aint that hard" ask any professional and they will tell you different from what the poster has put. Its very easy to sit behind our screens and type what we would like somebody else to believe, in real life as we all know its a lot harder as you are trying to bet against owners, jockeys, farriers, you are trying to second guess what weight the horse is , how much water has been put on the track by the clerk of the course, what course they are running on, there are far too many unknowns thats why its unpredictable.
To the last poster I would take 1/2 that over your lifetime you have lost a considerable amount of money.
JP hope you have managed to sort your problems out and it hasnt cost you too much.

Anonymous said...

JP - I am sad to see you giving up the blog. I admire you for efforts in trying to make a good fist of professional gambling. I too have expereinced terrible run of luck. I hope you come up with a new strategy soon and get some money back. Good luck in all your endeavours - Ben

Man of Mystery said...

Come and have a holiday JP. I'm back in Malta for a few months if you fancy it?

Anonymous said...

"i am making about 4k a month from racing and it aint that hard." - the sort of thing only a tipster would come out with.

I think the most unfortunate thing for JP is the way a good run had lulled him into leaving his job and having an expensive holiday, losing 10k on the year wasn't great but taken over the last few years he was well in front, certainly a nice supplementary income.

This blog may be proof that a full time income from tipsters isn't possible.

Up and Over said...


The only thing you're generating is more wind to inflate our already 'inflated' EGO. Come back down to planet Earth. Get off cloud nine.

Jp shouldnt be following private tipsters alot of them are having bad results. Obviously you're going to have a bad run. If you follow the form and goto forums for advice (like i do) you can get better equipped.
A job helps as horseracing cannot alone be enough to make money.

Regards, GS

donald said...

taking a break isnt a bad thing- you will be sorely missed. but hope to hear from uyou soon when you return to winning/prosperous ways and these days will be long in the past.

FredF said...

I'm really sad to see you go. You are very talented and I'm sure you will do great at whatever you do next.

Anonymous said...

I miss this blog bigtime.

I hope you are doing well.

Mr Twilight said...

I first came across this blog by accident a coupld of years ago, and have just happened on it again only to find you've finished! Hope things have picked up punting wise, and all the best Grand National 2011

Caan Berry said...


This game brings many highs and lows, the very fact you've lasted so long says something in its self... i wish you luck in whatever you decide to do although i get the feeling from your posts this is just a bit of a mental thing. I wish you a change in luck :)



(also if you could add my blog to your list it would be appreciated )

Anonymous said...

Did you have a good Cheltenham JP? It would be interesting to see if you're still punting or what you've been up to. Did you see the SLH BBC TV program last year?

Give us a one off update!

Anonymous said...

Mate, can you get this blog going again or at least let us know what you are doing in terms of your gambling at the moment? Are you still following any tipsters?

BetAdvisor said...

Making money through gambling isn't easy but it looks like you had some success at times, as Skeeve said, the use of established and historically profitable tipsters would certainly help your cause.

Hopefully one day you will feel confident enough to dip your toe back in the water, maybe on a smaller budget though as sleepless nights caused by gambling is not a good sign.

If you do come back, we've got some good tipsters at that might be able to help you make some money.